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  • happygambler34 happygambler34 Jan 30, 2013 2:37 PM Flag

    Economic Disaster Crawls Ahead

    Fear not HOUS/COTUS/TOTUS/I/ME/MY will blame the last president....OPPPPSSSS spin doctors have to come up with new talking points---he was last president!!!

    U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in Fourth Quarter

    U.S. economic momentum screeched to a halt in the final months of 2012, as lawmakers' struggle to reach a deal on tax increases and budget cuts likely led businesses to pare inventories and the government to cut spending.

    The nation's gross domestic product shrank for the first time in 3 1/2 years during the fourth quarter, declining at an annual rate of 0.1% between October and December, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

    It was the first time the broad measure of all goods and services produced by the economy contracted since the recovery from the financial crisis began. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected 1.0% annualized growth.

    The decline reflects worries about the so-called fiscal cliff. The economy reversed from a 3.1% pace of growth in the third quarter largely because federal government spending fell by 15% and private business, likely fearing slack in demand, let inventories dwindle.

    "Think of it as a giant hand holding down the economy," said Tim Hopper, chief economist at TIAA-CREF. "The underlying fundamentals are quite strong."

    With the worst effects of the pending budget cuts and tax increases averted after Congress and the White House reached an agreement this month, Mr. Hopper said he expects the economy to return to moderate growth this year.

    However, tax increases and possible federal budget cuts could weigh on advances in the first half of the year, said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group PNC +0.03%. Exports are still a concern because of the recession in Europe.

    "The economy has less momentum going into 2013 than initially thought, making it vulnerable to external shocks," Mr. Hoffman said in a research note.

    Real final sales—GDP less changes in private inventories—increased 1.1% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 2.4% gain in the prior period.

    Trade was also a drag on the economy, as exports fell 5.7% during the quarter.

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    • as lawmakers' struggle to reach a deal on tax increases and budget cuts likely led businesses to pare inventories and the government to cut spending.


      Cumgobbler yells every day for government to cut spending, then yells even more when government does cut spending, and it slows down the economy. For instance, military spending plunged 22.2 percent last quarter – the sharpest quarterly drop in more than four decades.

      How can this be, given that Cumgobbler is always yelling that government spending doesn't stimulate anything?

      Even more curious, Cumgobbler "forgot" to mention that private sector spending was actually half decent. For example, final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strips out government spending as well as trade and inventories, rose by 2.8 percent. “Consumers and businesses kept spending at a pretty steady pace,” said Michael Feroli, chief United States economist at JPMorgan. “There was a lot of noise that moved the headline around.” For the entire year, the economy grew by 2.2 percent, a slight improvement from the 1.8 percent annual rate in 2011.

      So this is weird. Private spending is up, government spending is down just like Cumgobbler wants, and yet the economy contracted. Cumgobbler has been yelling that this is impossible, since "government has never created a single job."

      Apparently he is convinced that MORE government spending does nothing, but LESS government spending hurts the economy. This is what we call "GobblerNomics."

    • Wiedemer to Moneynews: Economy Could Be 'Significantly Worse' Than US Says

      While many economists say the 0.1 percent decline in the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) isn’t as bad as it looks, financial commentator Robert Wiedemer, best-selling author of "Aftershock," says the number is actually worse than it looks.

      That’s because the government only adjusts GDP numbers by an annual inflation rate of 0.6 percent, even though the Consumer Price Index rose 1.7 percent last year, he tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. And given the slim magnitude of GDP change, the inflation number makes a big difference.

      “I think this number could actually be significantly worse than what the government is saying,” Wiedemer notes. While government spending, particularly defense, was blamed for much of the slip, Wiedemer says it’s really just the vagaries of how the government measures its spending.

      Unadjusted numbers show that the government actually spent more in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter — $907 billion versus $877 billion, he says.

      “Because of the way they sometimes measure government spending, it doesn’t always show up in GDP,” Wiedemer adds. “But it wasn’t that government spending went down. I think we all know that.”

      This doesn’t mean GDP won’t grow in the first quarter, he maintains. It’s just that “the reality here is that the economy is much slower than many people, certainly the government, want you to believe — and even some members of the financial community want you to believe.”

      Virtually all the world has joined the United States in its slow-growth mode, including most of Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia and Brazil.

      “This [the U.S. slowdown] isn’t really an aberration from how the world economy looks, and I don’t think it’s all of a sudden just going to miraculously pick up in the next year,” added Wiedemer, a managing director of Absolute Investment Management, an investment-advisory firm for individuals with more than $300 million under management.

      “Next quarter, maybe it picks up a little. … But I think it clearly indicates we’re part of the slowing world economy.”

      Some might argue that the stock market is a leading indicator so that its sharp rise over the past year signals strength ahead for the economy. But Wiedemer disagrees.

      “How much of a leading indicator really was the market in 2008? I’m not sure it really led that well.” The market hit record highs in October 2007, about a year before the financial system nearly collapsed.

      On a smaller scale, Apple stock’s explosive gains last year until September gave little warning of the company’s earnings slowdown that lay ahead, says Wiedemer, a regular contributor to Financial Intelligence Report, the flagship investment newsletter of Newsmax Media.

      “I don’t know how much of a leading indicator the stock market is. In some ways it’s more of a cheerleader at times than a leading indicator.”

      At this point the economy may be more of a leading indicator for the stock market than the other way around, Wiedemer says. “I think fundamentally what you’ve got is a slowing economy. … Obviously it’s going to make the market a little bit more worried.”

      • 2 Replies to happygambler34
      • The jobs recovery continued to crawl forward at a slow pace in January, and there's little hope it will pick up any time soon.


        The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in January, according to a Labor Department report released Friday. That's slower growth than in December, when employers hired 196,000 workers.

        Call it "Groundhog Day in the labor market," said Heidi Shierholz, economist with the Economic Policy Institute. "It's the same old #$%$. We've been waking up to this same story for two years."

        The unemployment rate was 7.9% in January, as 12.3 million people were counted as unemployed. Overall, hiring is barely keeping pace with population growth, and the Labor Department noted that the unemployment rate has barely changed since September.

        Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are expecting job growth to continue in 2013 at roughly the same pace as last year, when the economy added 2.2 million jobs. They predict the unemployment rate will end the year at 7.5%.

        Beata Caranci, vice president and deputy chief economist at TD Economics, said that many of the job gains are likely to happen at the end of the year though.

        Construction hiring could be one of the highlights this year. It was the single hardest hit sector in the recession but has recently shown some signs of life. In January, construction firms added 28,000 jobs, reflecting a stronger housing market and rebuilding efforts after Superstorm Sandy.

        Caranci is predicting that construction alone will account for roughly a quarter of all the jobs added in 2013.

        "The housing market is gaining more momentum on its own, and we think it could be a leader in the job market," she said.

        That said, political uncertainty is still hanging over employers, as they wait for Congress to hash out a budget deal. Amid an impasse between Democrats and Republicans, chances are growing thatautomatic spending cuts, which aim to reduce deficits by $1.2 trillion over a decade, could take effect starting in March.

        "Today's report is a reminder of the importance of the need for Congress to act to avoid self-inflicted wounds to the economy," said Alan Krueger, head of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, said in a White House blog post.

        Check the unemployment rate in your state

        In January, health care continued to be a strong sector for job growth, adding 23,000 jobs. Most of those jobs were in ambulatory health care services, a category that includes doctors' offices and outpatient care centers.

        Retail added 33,000 jobs, with about a third of those gains at clothing stores.

        Manufacturers added about 4,000 jobs, but the Labor Department noted that employment in this sector has changed little since July.

        Meanwhile, the government continued to cut jobs for the fourth month in a row.

        The Labor Department also released revisions to its 2012 data, showing the economy added 335,000 more jobs during the year than originally reported.

        Overall, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs in the financial crisis, and is still down about 3.2 million jobs from the labor market's height in January 2008.

      • Cumgobbler quotes the professional Chicken Little Wiedemer, who's been predicting doom since 2009. He yelled to get into gold just as gold prices stalled out, and in 2009 he urged shorting the market with inverse ETFs -- a strategy that would have been a disaster in the year after March 2009 when the stock market soared. He also predicted that the Euro community would be much more solid than the US dollar in the near term. Now we see the Euro struggling with the US dollar doing fine.

        Moreover, his current economic analysis is idiotic. GDP growth is measured on a year over year basis, not sequentially, in part because of seasonality and part because the prior quarter's data is itself still subject to revision. His using quarter over quarter data for defense spending, when all the other data is year over year, is stupid and dishonest. Finally, his views are out of step with the consensus view of other economists. Most expect GDP data for the quarter to be revised upwards later on (GDP data is revised several times as more info comes in), and most forecast decent growth for 2013.

        But of course Cumgobbler would rather believe the doomsday views of a hack writer selling Investing Porn via the Contard Cum site Newsmax. Because he is: the Cumgobbler.

    • Krugman: ‘Depression Conditions’ Continue in the US

      The U.S. economy is not ready to stand on its own, therefore the Federal Reserve should “keep the pedal to the metal” and continue quantitative easing (QE) well into 2015, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman tells Yahoo.

      Krugman's arguments in favor of long term QE come as the Federal Reserve holds its first policy meeting of the year.

      Economists are generally confident that the central bank will keep the aggressive bond buying programs in place — for now. But, the question plaguing the minds of many is when will it end?

      Speculation that the Fed may wind down quantitative easing programs this year was driven by the release of minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

      The minutes stated that “several [members] thought it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability and the size of the balance sheet.”

      Krugman argues that the economy is still ailing and now is not the time for the Fed to give consideration to such ideas.

      “Almost 4 million workers have been out of work for more than a year,” he tells Yahoo. “We haven't had anything like that since the 1930s,” he adds.

      “If the Fed can convince people that it‘s going to keep the pedal to the metal … that still has some leverage on the economy,”

      While many cite the possibility that the Fed's policy may spark inflation, Krugman notes that inflation of 3 or 4 percent could be helpful.

      While he acknowledges that the economy is in the midst of a slow recovery, he says the United States continues to suffer from “depression conditions.”

      He also dismisses the concerns over the federal deficit. Krugman argues that the Federal government, like the Fed, need not lend its ear to calls for tightening spending, but rather insists that the path to better economic conditions is paved by more spending.


      “There is no good reason dealing with debt should be a priority today,” he says.

      “A growing economy is the best solution to all our problems.”....DUHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

    • Cumgobbler humiliated right on schedule!

      Just as I predicted on this thread, when I wrote, "Most expect GDP data for the quarter to be revised upwards later on (GDP data is revised several times as more info comes in)," today the government revised 4th quarter GDP estimates so that now growth was pegged at slightly positive in the 4th quarter.

      Another bogus rant and rave from Cumgobbler!!!

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