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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • reneew97 reneew97 May 15, 2008 9:08 PM Flag

    Anyone going to Put in Tulip bulbs this year?

    I have a great tool called the fslr used for digging a hole for yourself.

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    • No tulips but man can this puppy hunt!
      ALL insiders selling, P/E above 100, limits on growth in short to medium term, guaranteed increase in efficiency to customers that could backfire resulting in lower margins, and fixed (and reducing) sales price to customers.
      Consider this an interest-free loan on account and go short...
      The higher the price, the more I continue to sell short, just a matter of time til this bubble bursts. Stay strong shorts and stick to your instincts with this one.
      FAIR VALUE = $125, not $317...

      WFR is a much better play long since it supplies other solar manufacturers, has good margins and excellent long-term prospects. At current P/E of 25 sure beats one that is 5x that.

      JMHO - Good luck to all...

      • 1 Reply to johnny_lew
      • When: 1634-1637
        Where: Holland

        The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: This number is difficult to calculate, but, we can tell you that at the peak of the market, a person could trade a single tulip for an entire estate, and, at the bottom, one tulip was the price of a common onion.

        Synopsis: In 1593 tulips were brought from Turkey and introduced to the Dutch. The novelty of the new flower made it widely sought after and therefore fairly pricey. After a time, the tulips contracted a non-fatal virus known as mosaic, which didn't kill the tulip population but altered them causing "flames" of color to appear upon the petals. The color patterns came in a wide variety, increasing the rarity of an already unique flower. Thus, tulips, which were already selling at a premium, began to rise in price according to how their virus alterations were valued, or desired. Everyone began to deal in bulbs, essentially speculating on the tulip market, which was believed to have no limits.

        The true bulb buyers (the garden centers of the past) began to fill up inventories for the growing season, depleting the supply further and increasing scarcity and demand. Soon, prices were rising so fast and high that people were trading their land, life savings, and anything else they could liquidate to get more tulip bulbs. Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits. Somehow, the originally overpriced tulips enjoyed a twenty-fold increase in value - in one month!

        Needless to say, the prices were not an accurate reflection of the value of a tulip bulb. As it happens in many speculative bubbles, some prudent people decided to sell and crystallize their profits. A domino effect of progressively lower and lower prices took place as everyone tried to sell while not many were buying. The price began to dive, causing people to panic and sell regardless of losses.

        Dealers refused to honor contracts and people began to realize they traded their homes for a piece of greenery; panic and pandemonium were prevalent throughout the land. The government attempted to step in and halt the crash by offering to honor contracts at 10% of the face value, but then the market plunged even lower, making such restitution impossible. No one emerged unscathed from the crash. Even the people who had locked in their profit by getting out early suffered under the following depression.

        The effects of the tulip craze left the Dutch very hesitant about speculative investments for quite some time. Investors now can know that it is better to stop and smell the flowers than to stake your future upon one.

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