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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Dec 5, 2012 4:40 PM Flag

    Chart Update based on Today's Action

    FSLR continued higher today with another green close. Nonetheless, the stock showed some volatility today and that could be a sign that some selling will be seen here at $30 that will take the stock back down to $25. Nonetheless, there are still no tangible signs that further upside won't be seen as the stock closed in the upper half of the days trading range and further upside is the most probable course of action for tomorrow. On an intra-day basis, today's low at 29.15 is now considered support and if broken would likely bring in new selling. In addition, the stock got down to the 50 10-minute MA on 2 occasions today without breaking the line and generating a rally each time. The line is presently at 29.70 which is also the bottom of the $30 demilitarized zone and that suggests that tomorrow if the stock is to keep heading higher that the line and 29.70 will not be broken. If the stock is able to get above today's high at 30.49, there is no resistance above until 34.05. Probabilities favor the upside but eyes need to be kept open for any negative signs that this rally has found a temporary top.

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    • It is now established that thge 50 10-minute MA will be playing a key role for the next few days. The line has now been tested successfully 3 times, including today's low at 29.80, and the stock then turned around and went above yesterday's high at 30.49 (today's high has been 30.84 so far) and into an area far away enough to suggest the psychological resistance at $30 is no more.

      Simply stated, the bulls now have open air above and a clearly defined support level blose-by below at $30 and that means limited risk (where to place a stop loss), no resistance above for another $4, and momentum. That is a chart cocktail for success.

      If no negative fundamental news or event occurs, it should be free sailing until 34.00 is reached.

      By the same token, if the 10-minute MA is now broken it will be a "short-term" meaningful break.

    • Agreed.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Thank you! I read in an older post that you are a retired chart man. How accurate have your predictions (based on your art) been WRT FSLR in the past few months ?

      • 2 Replies to steely11
      • Let me begin to answer you by saying that I was once a professional floor daytrader in the 80's and that is a different animal altogether to anything you might have knowledge about. My track record is 47.5% being right but you need to understand that I play a game where I "pinpoint" my entry points and risk very little on each trade. That means I get stopped out often on trades. I use a trading approach where I only get involved with trades with better than 4-1 risk/reward ratios based on charts so I can get stopped out often and still make a good profit with 47.5% being right. In fact, with my trading system, I could be wrong as often as 80% of the time and still turn a profit. I also use diversification (6-10 stocks traded at the same time) with usually no more than 15% of the portfolio on each stock. It does prevent big losses and increases my chances of having a big winner.

        The key is my knowledge of what levels of support/resistance the professional daytraders are using to trade, I trade the same way. It is not easy for people to trade the way I do but it has worked form me. I have not had a losing year since I started trading this way. This kind of trading is NOT about being right or wrong, it is about making more money than what is lost.

        I am exclusively a chart trader and the only other technical indicator I use are the Moving Averages. I even use the 1-minute charts to find entry and exit levels. I do not use any other indicator (RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, etc) though I will look at them from time to time to confirm whether the trade is good or not.

        I am very good at what I do, but it does take a special mentality to trade the way I do. Nonetheless, my knowledge is beneficial to everyone, including long-term traders though in the case of long-term traders you would have to "muddle" through a lot of information I give to gather the information you can use.

      • I sold 1/2 of my position (options) today on the second attempt @ the high. I'm looking for a pullback maybe to the $28 to $28.50 area. I will re access at that time. I like this to the $40 area relatively short term. IMHO

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • r.morgan56 Dec 5, 2012 5:10 PM Flag

      Thanks! It was interesting to observe the initial action @ $30.30.

      Sentiment: Hold

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