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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • jing_sun01 jing_sun01 Dec 5, 2012 7:31 PM Flag

    $30 is the Top, $28 is The Next Target

    Looks to me FSLR's current run is pretty much over. This run was clearly fued by some short covering. There is absolutely no business news from the company that triggered the run. So, after 2 ~ 3 days of heavy trading, roughly 25mil shares changed the hands, thus those who wanted to cover at $30 and below have pretty much done their job. On the other hands, people like me who had been quietly accumulating FSLR since $21 have been waiting for this round of upswing to hit the high end before taking profits, so I for one will start unload my shares tomorrow if I don't see clear signs of further upward trend. But, judging from how the stock behaved today, I would guess that most likely FSLR will start a downward trend tomorrow, with the first consolidating point at around $28 within 2 ~ 3 days if not sooner. After that, if it can't hold at $28, then $26 would be the next leg down target. But, I would imagine that FSLR won't stay long at $26 if it ever hits it again there, instead, another gradual run up will start after that.

    Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • If you look at the price history as well as the chart, you can easily see that the current run actually started roughly on Mon. 11/26. Before that FSLR's daily volume was averaging 2mil sh/day in the previous 10 days, and the price was hanging around at $23 ~ $24 range. On 11/26, a big volume came in at the early afternoon, pushing the price over $25 with 3.25mil share traded. Then the next couple days there were huge 8~10mil sh/day volume, sending the price to $26 ~ $27 level. After that the volume stabilized somewhat at a little higher ground of 4mil sh/day in the next 3 days, and the price kept at $26 ~ $27 range. Then came to 12/04 and 12/05, another big round of short covering with 7~10mil sh/day volume, sending the price to $29 ~ $30. The total volume of the past 8 sessions is 52+mil, while the previous 8 sessions before that had only 21mil. During the period, there was absolutely no business news. In other words, most likely all the extra volumes came from short covering. Among the 52mil, I'd guess that at least 1/3 belongs to the short covering, or roughly 17mil, could be more. In fact, if the normal volume is 21mil, now 52mil yields about 30mil to the short covering. As of 11/15, there were 25mil shorts outstanding. After the past 8 sessions of run, my educated guess is that we will see at least 15mil shorts covered. In other words, there will be just 10mil shorts left if not less. Of course there will be new shorts entering FSLR, especially if the Golden Johnson and company issue another round of bearish comments, which most likely they will in the next couple days. So, my conclusion is, this short covering fueled run is pretty much over. If you look at the charts carefully, one thing is clear to me that, as soon as the volume dries up, the price goes down. If we have only 4mil share today, then we will close at $29, and heading to $28 tomorrow.

      Buckle up and enjoy the ride!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I am kicking myself for not selling today. I have a bad feeling about tomorrow. Hope I am wrong.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I dont think so. Strange pattern with the high easily above $30 today. In the past $30 has held as a psychological stopping point. I think it might stall for 2 days around $30 and then continue the run. Tomorrow will be interesting.

    • So, in your estimation...the 49% of the float that was short all covered with 25m shares churned ?
      It hit a new top and fought back to close green today, happens when you have a big one day run.

    • You make no sense so sell and leave

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