Where are your figs?
Are they no-
upside(downside)-risk of 15056.45(13057.44) for $DJI
ytd high/low (current)thus far, 15009.59/13104.3 yielding
ytd E[X] = 14056.945
What are you E[X] -pecting...?
A tightening of the model.
Average ytd-range from 1989 to(incld) this yr 2013 is, (current)
1,952.15 points for $DJI.
Ranges for 11' & 12' were 2,471.71 & 1626.71 points.
Using current ytd low & high, one then add(to ytd low) &
subtract(from ytd high) the average range.
This gives us the fol(current)
2013 proj for $DJI is the upside(downside)-risk of 15056.45(13057.44)own)side risk(s) revised
A tightening of the model , dampen your speculation.
Now we average from 1989 to current yr.