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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. Message Board

  • clarksterh clarksterh Jun 28, 2012 6:06 PM Flag

    SNTA Valuation

    Multiple mo mo's are claiming SNTA should drop to mid 3's or lower. Does this make sense?

    Prior to the quarterly cc in early May the price of SNTA was in the high 3's and low 4's. Does this interim data indicate worsening of expectations over what was expected at that time (late April)?

    Definitely not since:

    a) Treatable population size - The expected efficacy in early april was only 1 endpoint (KRASm had shown some signs in the ph i) - all other endpoints were exploratory. But now there is a reasonable possibility of much broader treatable population.

    b) Efficacy - as per Synta's own charts they powered the trial for an mKRAS HR=0.5. Only one trial in 10 shows a better efficacy than the powering assumptions so again this is better than one would have expected in late April.

    c) Robustness (i.e. chance of complete whiff in this ph iib) - there was a reasonable chance of that in late April. There is definitely less chance of that now (yes, one subgroup may disappear, or there may be a return to the mean, ... - but a complete whiff is mostly off the table.)

0.343Jul 22 3:59 PMEDT