Dr. Bahcall stated that ganetespib could top $2 billion in annual sales as a combo therapy for 2nd line NSCLC. All it has to do is achieve 25% penetration (which he seemed to think was conservative) of the 160,000 patients/year and charge ~$50K.
This doesn't include its monotherapy trials or combo with first line NSCLC or other cancers or its other pipeline drugs.
He also stated that the Phase 3 trial was 99% powered assuming a 60% Hazard Ratio. The Phase 2b Interim Hazard Ratio was far better -- 37%! The probability of failure is truly microscopic.
It's hard to see how Synta can fail. Lives will be extended by 170% (not 70%) (about a full year on average) if the Phase 2b Interim results hold up. And they could get even better since the trend has been improving with time.