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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. Message Board

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  • efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Nov 16, 2012 12:10 AM Flag

    Lazard

    Dr. Bahcall stated that ganetespib could top $2 billion in annual sales as a combo therapy for 2nd line NSCLC. All it has to do is achieve 25% penetration (which he seemed to think was conservative) of the 160,000 patients/year and charge ~$50K.

    This doesn't include its monotherapy trials or combo with first line NSCLC or other cancers or its other pipeline drugs.

    He also stated that the Phase 3 trial was 99% powered assuming a 60% Hazard Ratio. The Phase 2b Interim Hazard Ratio was far better -- 37%! The probability of failure is truly microscopic.

    It's hard to see how Synta can fail. Lives will be extended by 170% (not 70%) (about a full year on average) if the Phase 2b Interim results hold up. And they could get even better since the trend has been improving with time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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