I am a long time lurker and seldom ever post. I needed a new ID to post today because it has been years since I posted anything and I couldn't recall my old ID.
A few of my thoughts are as follows:
Bruce Kovner is solidly in control of this company. Reference page 7 of the 4/30/14 proxy and notice to shareholders. If you add all of his direct and indirect positions, Mr. Kovner controls at least 55% of Synta's common stock. This company does not make a decision without his approval. His most recent purchase demonstrates that Mr. Kovner has every intention of maintaining that degree of control.
The HDC program and it's wide ranging applications are the real long term value asset. With the ability to improve the performance of chemos from many different Pharmas, control of HDC becomes critical. If I ran a large pharma, and my best therapies can utilize HDC, I can extend my patent protection for years. I would want to control HDC for myself. Better yet, my competitors would have to pay me huge royalties to utilize HDC with their drugs. At some point in the not too distant future, this realization could set off a bidding war, with Mr. Kovner running the auction. Synta will get purchased, but at a price satisfactory to BK.
Short term the price will continue to stagnate without news. Longer term, we have a real winner here.
Great post. My only regret now is buying to much size at $4.30 and then averaging down. I wish I held off on my buys at $4.21 and $4.12. Basis is good, but these buys at $4.05 are killing me.
On point.......Kovner has been gobbling up shares at an alarming rate. I think deep down he doesn't want to be known as "the trader billionaire" but rather the guy who cured non small cell Lung Cancer. This is a much better legacy to leave to your heirs.
That being said, he can't get all the control he wants without attracting attention. A poster a while back asked who is shorting at these levels? I put it out there that maybe its Kover? Shot the hell out of it, bring it down to $3.50 to get the rest of retail out.....cover......and then take it out. He has the coin to do this and it makes sense since he cannot buy in the open market at his current ownership percentage.
And I agree 100%. Big pharma is totally in trouble if they have to buy SNTA with Kovner pulling the shots....they will lost their shirts. But that in the end is what is going to take place and he knows it. He can short, and then cover (thus reducing basis if he covers 2x at the low) and then he gets to call the price.
Fact is retail is now a part of this MUCH bigger game being played out. I'm sitting back and watching it unfold. No panic here with 41,500 shares. I can get up to 50,000 shares if we get to $3.90 or $3.75 and I'm still perfectly comfortable with this investment. I thought before I would scale out, but I'm going to kill myself if this gets bought out and I'm no longer holding a decent sized chunk.
Agree re HDCs being huge asset and most likely more effective than ganetespib. But they are slow to develop them because of cash drain of more advanced trials using ganetespib. Would love to see partnership so they have the cash to fast track HDCs