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CEL-SCI Corporation Message Board

  • xji590 xji590 Nov 3, 2009 6:54 PM Flag

    shorts become longs

    Today many shorts became longs.....expect the stock to inch up prior to news, and gap up with news. This is the trend for this week. Those that sold and are on the sidelines expecting it to go back down soon, you may be regretting that wait. I'm into probability theory.....I use it a lot to determine how to judge what to do investment's unbelievably accurate when you learn how to do it.....AND, to help the board out a bit, and particularly my friend Lucinda, we're going higher tomorrow, and the next day. There will be intra-day swings down, but the shorts are covering, and bringing with it a new base.

    With news, and particularly if the A-team decides to show up, it will be a massive day of buying, if the news is strong enough. Probability of this prediction: 75% chance of being correct. Hopefully all of this DD will pay off, because it sure takes a lot of time to do it....

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    • You are very observant Sherrie and evidently a lot of other investers think the same way as you. Now, the bigger question is what happens tomorrow?

      I would be surprised if you don't get a PR from either Geert or Biomed Reports tomorrow morning. I've played CVM long enough to know that Geert and company always capitalize on momentum.

    • Clap, clap, clap, clap..standing tall...clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap. Standing ovation, xji - very well done.

      My observation: most "liberals" don't make the connection between their espoused philosophies, and their lives... Also, for those of us who dare to question...I find that there is no one less liberal in their thinking than a liberal.


    • I theorized that there was a conference this weekend and the PPS would go up.didn't buy on Monday, and almost missed it this morning. when the trades slowed down to almost five minutes apart at .91 a share, I figured it was time to buy back in. less then five minutes later it jumped up .15, your right theorize works. mostly I knew the conference was coming and knew it would have to account for that.

    • ...sorry sir, my meterological talent is pretty thin.....but I hope it's very cold, and we get 10 feet of snow, have a warm fire nearby and a beautiful wife to share it with.......that would be a good winter.

    • Not's too interesting to sleep it away. RE: Arcane methods....ya, Warren is a pretty arcane guy........I think that's pretty good company.

    • If you like NG, watch WMB....very solidly run company.

    • Thank you for your insights.

      One of my primary long-term concerns is whether or not they will have the cash built up or the revenue stream necessary to take them through Phase III's completion.

      I was invested in a company called Viragen a few years back. It had a lot of potential, but IMO the shorts/hedge funds/bad guys killed the stock price and therefore their ability to raise any funding.
      They went bankrupt.

      Does anyone have any insight?

      • 2 Replies to natevdm2000
      • $20 million more and they'll be beyond reach of those types of shanagans....they'll just be too far into P3 to be taken under....also, there is big money investing in CVM now, and they won't go quietly either without a decent ROI. But I do think CVM may need as much as $20M more to get completely through P3....but no more. So, I see CVM exiting P3 at about 215-220M shares outstanding. From then on, they'll likely begin to use LOC's and other financing vehicles and revenue begins to pour in. The dilution will be a think of the past, in fact, instead of RS's, we'll likely in 5-6 years see a true stock split...1 for 3 or something like that.

      • CVM survived the recession and secured enough money to start phase III of Multikine. I think the most important factors for success are the management and product which this company has both.

    • Thanks for the reply, I was asking it since the price of NG will be affected by cold winter in US.

      Currently NG is very cheap and it can fly up with very cold winter.

      Long on CVM,

    • cold as shit where you live...In reality, mostly warmer in the USA except for the Eastern Seabord, El Nino is going to pound us...

    • xj

      I am somewhat into probabilities, or at least trying to be. I have noted in earlier posts that you like to keep things on the board. Would you be willing to discuss the approach you are taking?

      • 2 Replies to accute
      • In theory, the more you can measure (in terms of bringing these variables to the table and assigning probabilities to them) the more likely you can predict the outcomes....both in terms of stock price (measuring yearly variables, milestones, outcomes) as well as likelihood that their basic business plan and model is going to succeed.

        Months ago, when working capital was scarce (and assigning a high probability to this variable that if is wasn't there, the likelihood of failure was high), in real life, the company was in trouble. Had things not changed, CVM could be really on the skids right now. Thank heaven, Geert raised the interest and raised the working capital to go on, and now CVM is in a very different "probability" of success on that variable.

        Once you've assigned these variables appropriately, you look at the overall big picture, and determine if the company has the "probabilities of success" in core areas working in their favor or not. This is a complicated, educated, but realistic way of dealing with uncertainty as an investor. But it requires a lot of work, as you can see.

        But when you're dealing with 10's of thousands of dollars of investment in one of more companies, NOT doing it to a degree of rigor leaves you totally guessing, and subject to the whims of other naysayers and pumpers.....all of which are typically dumber than stumps when it comes to real investment analysis.

        Buffets investment today in buying the railroad is a good case in point.....simply put, he looks at the main variables that make an industry like rail tick.....he looks at the general economy and the other businesses and sectors of our economy that rely on the rail industry to be successful.....and when he indicated WHY he made this move, did he talk about betting on the COMPANY itself? No, he commented on the VARIABLES that impact the success of the rail company....the general economy. He said he's basically betting on the U.S. economy in making this major $32B investment.....he analyzed the variables of success for his company, and analyzed the interdependencies.

        That's how pro's do's not rocket science, but it does require thought and work.

      • start with some of CVM's core "assets.......people, processes, technology and working capital" and evaluate the likelihood that they can pull off what they say they want to pull off, analyzing the mix of assets they have to work with. (One year ago, they would have fallen short in most, they have made great strides in these categories...therefore, probability begins to increase.) These "outcomes" are measurable, as they release S3 and submit to regulatory authorities outcomes of their work. You measure timing.....rate at which they've come to this point, with the assets they had to work with historically, and then take these same assets and outcomes and overlay the usage of those assets to the future timelines/miletones/demands. The consulting firm MacKenzie (sp?) refers to this approach as "Operational Analysis".

        You measure what is in their direct control (the main variables) and assign them probabilities of working right or achieving their desired outcomes, and measure, where you can, uncontrollable variables, and make an educated guess as to the impact of those variables on the controllable variables (i.e., this sometimes results in lowering probabilities) uncontrollable variable in this regard might be what the competition is doing, and where they are with bringing their product to market (that would compete with CVM's.) For example, if CVM had direct competition, with the same technology, using it for the same purposes, and were near P3 exit (with great P3 testing results), you'd significantly lower the probability of CVM beating their competition to market, and lower overall expectations across the board for stock price, potential sales revenues, etc. All of this stuff is somewhat dependant on each other.

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