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Ship Finance International Limited Message Board

  • jpspeckman jpspeckman Feb 14, 2013 7:56 PM Flag

    NTI ??????????????

    Ex div 2-19, will this keep going up after div? 25% profit to protect. any thoughts? Help

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    • I wish there was a crystal ball. From a technical perspective the biggest challenge with these new MLPs remains their lack of historical data as they are brand new products. So you can’t look at historical patterns, gaps, 200 DMA, support/resistance, etc. Only short term signals. Another thing unprecedented with these MLPs and Hybrid products is that they continue to go up, rather quickly, even after their div/dist or shares re-issues. Which the latter happens rather frequently. I have a combination of 9-10 of these MLPs and Hybrid REITS (starting 1-2 months ago) and for the most part they seem to march on regardless. If your goal is portfolio preservation, I would proceed with caution. You may want to take some off the table. If you’re a gambler, you can let it roll for the next 6-9 months until there’s a pattern of performance and dist. etc. This has become a casino of some sort.

      FWIW, NTI has closed above its 13 and 50 day EMA and it triggered a record price high when it hit a new 52-week high of 30.65. This is a bullish signal and it implies that the near-term trend of the stock is higher.
      Having said that, RSI, Stoch and other indicators show overbought territory. They march to the beat of their own drum and at least for near term refiners are hot. Until they’re not.

      Sorry for getting long winded.

    • You have to evaluate your timeline- take profit now for the quick kill or hang in for 6 quarters of divs.
      I think I'll hold- American refining is at a rare conflux of events and NTI is well positioned to take advantage of that. We can't ship oil out of the country but we can ship refined products. Since these products are in demand elsewhere, it may be profitable for some companies to export, which reduces the US domestic supply and raises prices. This works great for NTI, since they're selling gasoline, but positioned to take advantage of cheap local crude.

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