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Ship Finance International Limited Message Board

  • staggman99 staggman99 Jul 13, 2013 9:43 AM Flag


    Board this time I am up about 3% YTD on all of my investments and my current weighted average yield is still about 14%...fact is, 'I am not doing that good this year' current holdings at this time are:

    TWO yield about 12.5%, PSEC yield about 12.2%, NYMT yield about 17.4%, AI yield about 14.1%, NCT yield about 12.6%, WMC yield about 22.8%, SFL yield about 10.5%, SDRL yield about 8.5%, UAN yield about 10.6%, MLPL yield about 8.3%, ALDW yield about 28%, NTI yield about 20%, CVRR yield about 22% and PETDX yield about 18%...

    I usually try to maintain about 10 holdings and at this time I have twelve (I count my three refineries as one holding because of the total value of them) previous ten yer average on my investments has been over 20% gains a year (I will not come close to that this year)...

    My Crystal ball says we may be in for a rough ride until about November and then we may (???) get a nice rally at the end of this year (I hope)...over-all (all sources; investments, farms, leases and etc.) I am doing pretty good except on my investment model has always been to hold high yield stocks and eventually I would always profit from it (is my model broken, ???)...

    That said, I still have 'strong faith' in SDRL, SFL, UAN, WMC and the refineries, as they are my current favorites...I strongly feel that the 'current color and forward outlook' on SDRL and SFL is outstanding, plus UAN 'should shine' when the next quarter earnings are released...! $tagg...!

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    • I'll try again. I'm up over 20%, but part of that is Freddy and Fanny. Elsewhere:

      QCOR has been great; I've been in and not trading since ~$25. Even at $50, if you have a year or two it could really be great. Management is thrilling me lately with their strategy and execution.

      ACAS: Sleepy, down trodden at the moment, but a long term survivor. Look for a double in 18 months. Been long since Q3 '08 (a little too early) and haven't sold any. Bought more at $13.15 a couple weeks ago; I think we'll approach $20 in Q1 '14 and that it will get really interesting a year later.

      NTI/ALDW: I got a good entry below $25 on both in Q4 last year and have held since. May trim the position in Dec/Jan depending.

      HHC: It's killing this year. I can't really comment on the current value but I do think that a long term holder could benefit. The interesting things are the properties they own (where they are and what HHC's cost basis is) and the managment structure (Bill Ackman is the principle, but all the main people are heavy hitters who bought large blocks of options when they hired on. Skin in the game doesn't cover it).

      SDRL: Pays a nice div and will have rapidly expanding cashflow for the next year as new-build drill platforms come online and start their contracts. Note well the div history and the order backlog, and do a little reading about John Fredriksen, the principle.

      Finally, for you fixed income guys, two prefs I like AGNCP and IGK. Both pay ~8% on $25 face regardless of current SP. Recently both dropped below face, so the yield was higher then. I think entries near face are good (as they usually trade above) and ~$.50 per share per quarter isn't chumpchange.

      • 2 Replies to feralcomprehension
      • feral,

        A few comments....

        Thanks for the update on ACAS. If I was looking for a double in a couple of years I would go with GLNG. Biggest unknown... how far can China make inroads into the global LNG carrier fleet in 2-3 years?

        NTI&ALDW... I have them and CVRR. I am concerned about crude spreads with the world economic conditions slow to slowing. That would adversely affect crack spreads and exports from the Gulf coast refiners which would then slow petroleum and natural gas based exports. Hard to tell the significance, but I am looking to sell before ex-div.

        SDRL.... Add SDLP, NATDF, GLNG, and GMLP to that list.

      • For your speculative portfolio, I present the GSEs and an interesting pharma.

        I hold FMCKJ (since '10) FMCC and FNMA (since '09), all from well below a dollar. This is a very complicated situation, and may have a binary outcome (hero or zero, baby), but it's getting superinteresting lately. First, FnF are obscenely profitable; almost all private capital has fled the MBS market so FnF's market share expanded to over 90% (!). Second, Treasury will be FULLY paid back WITH INTEREST by Q1 '14 unless something really weird happens. Third, the government is being sued by several deep-pocketed plaintiffs alleging that the seizing and subsequent control of Fanny and Freddy hasn't been handled equitably. Might be worth a look, there are a lot of resources on line and the fnmas board at investors hub is pretty good.

        AFFY: They pulled their drug off the market and sold off all their furniture after several people died at dialysis clinics. Thing is... it may have been errors at the clinic, and the efficacy of the drug is such that unless it's proven that this (fully approved!) drug is wildly and unexpectedly dangerous it could be re-released and have significant value. Again, a complicated situation, but trading at a dollar and potentially worth 4-8x that I can afford to take the risk. Look up Maxdad on the QCOR board for better background than I could ever offer.

    • top 25 holdings highest to lowest. I have a current yld of approximately 3.54%. Some good and some bad overall I am up on the year.
      aespc AES preferred

    • Board members, a very nice bump this morning thanks to Ben B. This move upward has pushed my total returns YTD to just over 12%. If we can have as good a second half as we had the first six months, it will be a very good year indeed. GLTA

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    • Staggman - While message boards are often filled with junk, your postings have always been informative. and insightful. Among stocks you mention here, I currently own TWO, PSEC, NYMT, SDRL and SFL. As a retiree and long-term investor, I don't recall a time when such generous yields ( hopefully safe ) were available. That you favor these positions is reassuring. Thanks.

      • 1 Reply to stan1736
      • stan...thanks for the kind words...however, I am disappointed in myself at this time, my 10 year record on Total Returns has been over 20% a year and I will fall short of that this year....if investing was easy we would not need message boards and the wise input from other investors that have their own money on the line...

        That said, investment trends always change a bit, but I feel SDRL and SFL are two holdings that should 'continue to shine' for the long term...both SDRL and SFL have good color, strong drivers and a great forward outlook...i.e. SDRL and SFL both have strong revenue from leasing out off-shore drilling rigs; off-shore drilling will stay strong regardless of what the price of oil does...lower prices in oil/fuel will also help hold down the operating costs in shipping (may help profit sharing in SFL)...

        A lot of people 'got very upset' when the Deep Horizon oil well blew out....however, I could not believe how much oil was coming out of one little hole in the bottom of the Gulf Of Mexico...that showed me 'where the money was', both of the SDRL and SFL drilling rigs have 'double' Blow Out Preventors (off shore drilling will remain strong)...that said, I am, now checking out REITs and Banks that 'may benefit form' a increase in interest rates in the future (???)....! Good luck investing...! $tagg...!

    • Staggman: If that is your entire portfolio I hope you are very young and have many, many years till retirement. Most of your holdings are concentrated in 2 sectors and subject to violent corrections (this one past was bad, but not violent). Your holdings mirror mine in many ways but I hold over 30 positions, some for as long as 40 years. Those long held ones provide me with substantial income due to DRIP plans over all those years (ED, VZ,T). Sold my WMC and AMTG early last month as I was getting too heavy into REITs (compliments to NCT/NRZ, which I hold a TON of). Prescient move looking at today's price on them.Lightened up on AGNC and the only stock I just began trading around divvy is ALDW which worked out well for me last quarter. Just doing that for fun but a quick 2k leads me to try again this quarter. Don't share your outlook about short term though. I think the market will continue to perk throughout the year. Uncle Ben's comments took away a great unknown from investors and renewed confidence in the market. That, with the fact that employment is gaining, housing is recovering, and earnings seem to be positive keeps me almost 90% invested.
      P.S. I also own AI, NYMT,SFL, SDRL & NATDF. Have ARCC in the BDC space and own a load of MLPs.

      PPS: NCT forward yield is not 12.6%, it's closer to 8.5%.
      All JMHO.

      • 1 Reply to bobdbeck
      • bob...because this is a 'Show And Tell' I will expand on it....I am not young (71 years old) and I 'do not' have most of my investments in two sectors (I am invested in at least six different sectors (shipping & off-shore drilling, fertilizer, reits, BDC, basket of MLP's and refineries)...however, I do have to much in REIT's, but not all REIT's are equal, some should do as good or better when interest rates increase...i.e. WMC TWO, NYMT and NCT...

        I collect S.S. and a nice company pension, plus I receive company funds to purchase healthcare insurance...I have several farms in Southern Illinois and I also have income from other leases...I could live very well on just my 'farm income' and forget about pensions and investments...I agree that I take some amount of risks on my investments (the biggest risk is to not invest)...I also have a fair amount of cash reserves that are not invested...

        If I lost all of my invested funds it would not change my lifestyle at all because I have been debt free for about 15 years and my other income is a lot more than I presently spend...I am single and I only have two hands in my pockets (mine)...

        Eight out of ten years we get a 'Bloody October' and I try to get ready for it, if we do not have a pull-back between now and October I will 'still make' good returns...around the end of the summer a lot of people are sending children back to school, paying off vacation expenses and trying to get some money ahead for Xmas (those are some of the reasons we usually get a Bloody October)...

        I do agree that there are several safer places to put our invested funds at this time that pay less dividends/distributions...i.e. F, SCHW, AMTD, WFC and etc.,...I have a long history of being wrong about 20% of the time, so please remember that I always reserve the right to change my mind at any time without prior notice...! Good luck investing...! $tagg...!

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