There hasn't been a break on the 50 day in 5 months, and it's gone from 4.33 to 3.00 in that time frame. Given the hard support in the 2.50-3.00 range, i surmise a break and hold this time, somewhere in the next week. I don't think we were given justice on our last quarter report, and expect a solid turn back into the threes with next month earnings. YGE will be reinforced again as the best growth after having 44% shipment increase in Q1. They are the ones getting the market share. Look for shipment numbers between 550 and 625, poly at 22 cents, processing at 55-56 cents, ASP at 82-84 cents, GM ~7.5-9%. Thats ~40mm in op income. Look for SG&A + R&D to come in around 68mm for a ~20mm loss. Q1 would seem to be the trough, tho this isn't much of a turn. Q3 i hope YGE has their poly under 20 cents or close to. Either way, there will not be any significant income in in q4 and likely none in q3 to offset H1 losses.
Basically, this is a 2013 story now, and its anyone's guess where the ASP will level out if at all. Looking for 2013 shipments of 3000 GW. On 13-15% GM, we could see income between 110-170mm with 300mm in OPEX. If margins can't climb back above 10% in 2013, we are looking at another break even year. YGE could of course expand further than 3GW, or cut poly and processing surprisingly further to get back to 20% GM. In this case, we would have our recovery story. It is clear that many co's can;t even survive the current environment, so at some point you have to expect companies to cease operations in negative GM territory with no liquidity. Should be interesting to see, but we at least have heavy discounts already in place.
The way I read your numbers is a $0.68 ASP on 3GW grosses around $290M. Opex running at $75M per Q = $3000M. Inerestest accelearting to $40M per Q + puts another $160M. Total Opex and Interest is $460M or a loss from operations on the 14% GM of $170M for 2013.
Fun time to be a shareholder looking out 18 months and losses as far as one can envision.
as in the recent announcement of quadrupling planned capacity installation? Yes that will help lol. YGE will be getting the biggest piece of the pie out of the chi-solars. They are guiding for 30% of shipment to China alone this year. they will be likely drawing down on inventory considerably, as the 2.4GW capacity they will have will not be online the whole of 2012 to deliver their 2.5GW guidance. The important part is that they are gaining market share so fast they are hitting capacity. I think Q4 shipments shocked them when they tried to hold the line on ASP and margins, so now they are more willing to adjust. The nice part is that they have the most efficient processing costs, so they have room a lot of other firms don't. Batch orders are much larger with that kind of capacity, so the per unit costs are leading the industry.