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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

  • value_invstr value_invstr Nov 3, 2011 5:33 PM Flag

    Some Analysis

    I posted this on the Belo board as well, TVL could go private today and pay a huge premium. Here are the numbers (someone please correct me if I make a mistake or you disagree somewhere, maybe I misheard something on the CC).

    I believe 2011 Ebitda will be about $125M. They currently have the capacity to take SR. Secured leverage up to 5x, which is $625M. They currently have $125M Term Loan that they just did. They used the proceeds to take out $160M of the bonds as well as the $40M of cash they had. So they will certainly use the additionally Sr. Sec. Capacity to take out the remaining $253M 6 1/2's. This takes Sr. Sec. Debt to $378M, reducing capacity to $247M. Current equity Cap is $187M. Therefore they could pay a special dividend of $4.18 per share and use up the remaining capacity, or since Hicks Muse owns 23.5M shares, they could buy the remaining 34M shares for $7.26. HMC gets the company without writing a check, pretty nice for them.

    This analysis doesn't give TVL any credit for future FCF generation, and if Ebitda comes in at around $150M next year obviously it bumps the Sr Sec. capacity up to $750M, making the economics that much better. I'm not saying they are going to do this, I'm saying they can do this if they want. The equity where it is today is in a very unique arbitrage situation where the credit markets value the company higher than the equity markets.