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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 26, 2012 5:07 PM Flag


    Haven't seen a lot of postings lately on TVL or this sector. I suspect most of you have sold like I have done. Made a lot of money and now SBGI and BLC drifting back to what I sold at or below. GTN has positioned itself for a brighter future but Q4 is going to suck when they report a loss.If they make a profit it will barely be over the $30 million hit from early extinguishment of debt.
    As for TVL.......still a bright spot IMVHO but I'm getting nervouse. Nice move up today with BLC, SBGI and GTN crashing. I suspect partly from company buying their own shares at 25,000 to 30,000 shares a day which is main reason I still see room for TVL to bump up. We've just got 4 weeks+/- for earnings now on most of them. BLC hurt themselves again by declaring dividend with no increase which means at least another 3 months of waiting. IMVHO won't happen till after first of year but will happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see a special dividend declared for BLC and SBGI at year end if tax laws look like they will change on dividends.
    So far my strategy has worked even though I left some on the table.......however, I think TVL is going to have some fantastic quarters next 2 in this year and first two next year when they roll in their new acquisitions. With BLC it's status quo as usual and I see continued depressed results Q1 and Q2 2013 and then really bad comparisons for Q3 and Q4 2013. A dividend increase will probably add support but I don't see holding above $9 till 2014. Without a dividend IMVHO BLC would still be below $7 and probably close to $6. I still think that TVL made a mistake not declaring a dividend. Perhaps in 2013. Again, is everybody out? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Hi Dan,

      I still have TVL, BLC, and GTN with TVL as my biggest holding. I was hoping to wait until next year to sell because I already have a lot of gains on the books for this year. If I wait a little while longer, many of my shares will go from short term gains to long term gains as well.

      Saying all that, it may a good idea to follow your lead and sell (some anyway) because I went from a zero % return YTD in May to a 42% return for the year as of last Friday.

      Good luck in TVL and I hope you are right.


    • I recently sold some of my nxst, looking to swap into more tvl or gtn. Not much going on, just printing cash. The gtn bond and soon to be announced bank deal are big interest rate savers, sbgi just redid their bank deal, might do another acquisition. Their retrans deal with dish set a new record for the sector. Tvl keeps buying back shares, and I'm growing frustrated with blc because they are way too conservative but they will take out bonds soon and the divi raise is coming, probably in march. I agree sbgi will do a special div before year end. Very excited for the next two earnings reports and more m and a.

      In general everything is humming along.