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  • thrillhouse1980 thrillhouse1980 Jan 4, 2013 10:03 AM Flag

    NIKKEI 225 is up %3.17 wow!!

    It literally makes no sense. Nintendo stock on the tokyo stock exchange jp: 7974 wasn't even down over the past night. What the #$%$ is going on here?

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    • We are down big because 7974 was flat and the Yen is worth a lot less in terms of dollars than it was 4 days ago. The Japanese markets were closed so that currency movement was not baked into the price of NTDOY. Ultimately the Yen being down against the dollar is a good thing for NTDOY holders. Nintendo will need to reduce their 3DS hardware forecast to 15M for FY 13 which hurts. The bottom line is Nintendo will make money this quarter and next year and this stock is going up over the longer term unless the Wii U completely bombs. Even if the Wii U bombs Nintendo will still be making money, patience here is key and consider averaging down. This is a tremendous value play right now. The company is making money as we speak, no debt and they are selling the Wii U at a solid pace with no marketing or big games out yet.

      Disclosure - I own a small chunk of NTDOY, looking to get more soon when I can.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I wish a knew, but that's part of the problem, it's hard to find any news on Nintendo other then some random blogs or biased article. It can tank 4% in one day and nobody really seems to know why, it's very frustrating. So far I haven't seen the Japanese currency's value have any positive effect on this stock. Like I said before, this stock trickles up here and there, and then any gains over a span of time get wiped out and then some in one single day for no apparent reason.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • NTDOY is not equal to 7974! NTDOY equals the price of 7974 divided by 8 multiplied by the Yen to dollar exchange rate. The price of 7974 is 9170.

      9170 / 8 = 1146.25. Now apply the Y/$ rate (1/88 = .0113636) so 1146.25 * .0113636 = $13.025

      The key is the Nintendo ordinary shares are priced in a different currency so the movements in NTDOY are based on the movements of 7974 PLUS the Yen to dollar movement. No offense but you should not invest in something you do not understand. What is happening here is the literal dollar value of NTDOY is decreasing but the increase in Nintendos revenues are not being priced into the value of the equity 7974.

    • It's a straight FOREX conversion. 9180 yen per TSE share = 13.02 USD per ADR (1/8th share). When the Yen tanks it takes the stock value with it. It's up to Nintendo to show that the weakening Yen is having a benefit to their profits. We'll see with this month's earnings report.

      Sentiment: Hold

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