I can get to $82 to $82.50,a 4% increase, fairly easy.No mega reinsurance claims,the market is up 3%,a Billion dollar favorable derivative swing ,and a couple of billion in profits from the operating companies,and an underwritting profit from the insurance group,and I am there.
"the market" has nothing to do with book value--except when rats' droppings multiples are used to prove whatever somebody already wants to think.
"No" insurance claims during period x says nothing about potential for claims.
Any claim for "book" that is a multiple of the net receipts of a sheriff's auction is likewise fairly bogus.
Why? How can BV go up so much so fast. S&P500 and BRK portfolio is likely up only 2% from Q2 end to current. 2% gain on 72Billion is 1.4Billion gain (pre-tax). Likely BRK generated 2Billion in profits in the 2 months. Japan and Eurpoe index derivative puts are likely flat. So one can expect BV up net of taxes by about 2 to 3 Billion. With 1.65Million shares outstanding Likely up $1500 on the A shares or $1 on the B-shares. So 110% BV likely is at $79.71 mark to market. I think 82 and 85.50 is overly optimistic. That said who knows where markets will be end of the month? BV can decrease also as it has happened many times
Well, 79 is about 110% of most recently reported book, so that is a reasonable assumption if one assumes that equity prices in general will just continue to slog along where they are now. If a major correction was to occur, then BRK's book value would fall as well, and WEB has indicated that he has reserved the right to preferentially buy other stuff over supporting the buyback. So hypothetically speaking, the bottom could be quite a bit lower, in my opinion.
Agreed. It could go lower ..may be to 1x book or 71 or 72 or so in a severe correction. 85 is a risky price to buy I think with 10% to 20% downside. I don't see much upside near term...may be could see some up tick in q4. who knows.