It's not "nonsense" at all. It's a fact based trading strategy. However, most traders lose in the long run because no one has invesnted a completely reliable crystal ball. When they make money they can credit their prescience. When they lose money, they were too early or too late.
At least our friend has put his prognostication on the record, even though his holdings and trade may be imaginary. (Someone with true convictions about a "good holding for the long term" most likely would have sold in the money options.)
Anyhow, if the strategy blows up, the poster can always get a new Yahoo! id and start all over again.