I kind of agree with you, but were are in a time of change....a permanant change. So even if your theory worked from 8ys ago, only time will tell if it will work going forward.
HFTs are 80% of the markets, and makes money going up and down. More people are controlling their own accounts, so fund managers cant determine the stability of the market anymore...not to mention, their fees are no more, if you control your portfolio. Intrest rates at 0% change the playing field. Im glad its working for you, but going forward, I think that way of investing is dead and will be only a fraction of the market.
I think this is the most unsettling time I have seen. Our fed guvmt, via congress-both parties, seems determined to socialize this nation.
I assume that will take many more years. The capitalistic system should survive and that means some, not all, companies will adapt and adjust. I think any person investing for his future should try to assemble a few stocks that will grow and pay dividends.
Yes it is hard to pick winners; thats why I diversify. There are companies that consistantly raise dividends. A $30 stock today paying $1 dividend could easily pay a $2.50 dividend in 10 years; resulting in a future 8% yearly return.