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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • biotechveteran biotechveteran Sep 3, 2013 9:15 AM Flag

    Upcoming Presentation is Bullish Signal

    One wouldn't sign up to present if one thought the Ph2 VMAT results were going to bomb. I take this as a very bullish sign and may increase my position this morning.

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    • If they don't release the results prior to the conference, would that be a bearish sign? It would be either because they are not ready or they don't want to be to discuss bad results at the conference.

      • 1 Reply to ashtonb22000
      • Bad results would be material info and would need to be released ASAP; hence it would be malfeasance at best to "delay" them in any way. Thus, even if results aren't released by the time of the presentation, I wouldn't say that was a "bearish" development.

        I expect results no later than Monday the 16th. Given that NBIX has been hitting new highs, it's fair to say that the market is bullish on the Ph2b results. True, one could have expected a speculative run-up, and the biotech market has been hot, but I still don't feel a need to hedge my bet - not at a share price in the 16s.

    • I would rather highlight two influential biotech analysts from Cowen & Deutsche Bank getting out in front of the upcoming data as more significant in the stock breaking out. Both are very experienced and know the ingredients for the stock to take off. $20 will be in sights this Q if the data plays out successfully.

      • 1 Reply to timothyc121855
      • I don't disagree, but would give more weight to NBIX management adding a presentation than I would assign for analyst comments. Too, I don't know of an analyst report that is bearing on VMAT results. While NBIX management may still be blinded to the study results, they have received some info (e.g., what has been made public previously about demographic characteristics of sample, dropout rates, baseline AIMS scores), and so I am more attuned to any potential signals they may be conveying.

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