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Mesa Royalty Trust Message Board

  • abslack abslack Mar 12, 2007 4:17 PM Flag

    Has anyone noticed

    Has anyone noticed the following trading pattern lately?

    Stock is dramatically bid up till about 1pm, regardless of how oil and ng are performing, then some selling takes it down to its open, then it's bid back up 1-1.5%, then it closes either modestly lower or higher after someone sells right at the close?

    I ask only b/c I've noticed this pattern emerge quite frequently lately. Being someone with just enough capital to invest (rather than trade), I have this image of someone with more money than me taking advantage of the low float to make a couple hundred dollars here and there. I'm really started to get irritated by this holding pattern, especially considering the size of February's dividend.

    Anyway, I'm probably just disgruntled, but I was just wondering if anybody else has noticed this.

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    • I think the trader who's making the book for MTR is just very cautious and maybe a little greedy. the volume in very very low recently. I bought 700 shares on Tuesday mid morning and drove the price up 1.25. So look at the daily chart against volume and you'll see he (trader) is just really watching out for himself - as he should. More volume and the market will steady up.

      • 1 Reply to DaveTny
      • I think it must be a combination of a cautious, perhaps greedy trader, and several investors who are just sick of the position. I recall seeing a sell order for 20,000 shares execute last week. If not for unhappy investors, I can't think what would cause MTR to drop 3.5% on a day like today with O&G at these levels.

    • That is a good observation. I own some units and follow it daily, but I had not noticed the time related pattern. This has always bounced around a lot which I believe is due to the really small float.

      • 1 Reply to oldzosimos
      • You know, the same thing happened yesterday around the close (quote changed from 54.99 to 54.30). Fortunately, I made a point to track the volume closely (which isn't too hard to do with MTR)...Guess what happened: the price changed without any change in reported volume.

        In fact, while Reuters and Schwab showed the closing price was 59.30, Yahoo and the Nasdaq dynamic website showed 54.99. I called Schwab to report the inconsistency. Obviously, they couldn't explain it, but I noticed today that Schwab had yesterday's close at 54.99 this morning.

        Go figure.

        Anyway, I definitely agree with you on the point that MTR's volatility is due largely if not exclusively to the low float. Unfortunately, it was just this liquidity--combined with the Amaranth effect on nat gas, combined with people acting like the drop in royalties to pay off the Pioneer settlement was new news--that pushed this thing down 15% last year.

        Hopefully, distributions will keep up enough to compensate us for this inconvience (and hopefully, people won't get spooked come fall, when Pioneer pays of the rest of the settlement).

8.61+0.20(+2.38%)9:54 AMEDT