At $1.77, the stock has been priced with the assumption of only around $16M/qtr in revenues going forward. However I think they'll start posting $20M+/qtr, and here's why. They have working very hard to finish CREZ, yet they still did around $12.5M outside CREZ last qtr(as bad as it was), and added $2.7M to the backlog outside CREZ as well. With no CREZ to bog them down, I suspect GV could do around $17M-$19M/qtr in regular business. This is assuming no new contracts. However GV did recently announce their intention of doing an aquisition, which would add $4M/qtr, and would cost them $7M.
Assuming GV gets a loan at 7% for the $7M, they would pay additonal interest of $122K/qtr. However the additoinal $4M/qtr should add around $.015-$.02/qtr in after tax EPS. With $17M-$18M/qtr, I feel GV would post around $.05 in EPS(assuming 24.5% margins and a 35% tax rate). Therefore, even with no new contracts, I feel GV could start posting $.05-$.07/qtr after tax after CREZ. Assuming GV does the aquisiton, they could very well start posting $.07/qtr, or $.28/year fully taxed. That alone would make the stock worth $2.80, even if only a 10 PE is attached. However what if GV does the aquisiton, and then new contracts are announced in addition ?
Bottom line is, GV is being priced as if they'll only do around $15M-$16M/qtr after CREZ is completed, but the potential is for much greater. On the downside, assuming the aquisition doesn't go through, and GV gets no new contracts at all, and simply does around $14M- $15M/qtr, they'de still make around $.14/year, and be worth around $1.40(attachng a 10 PE). So the way I see it, GV has a potential downside(short term) of 20% if things fall off a cliff after CREZ, but the potential for upside of 50%-75% just as easily in my view.
Finally... a guy looking @ GV #'s & Potential Why GV Down -9.5% ??? [ With such Hot #'s 1. ROE +36% 2. ROA +16%+ 3. GrPROFIT +9% 4. DEBT Only $23 MIL on $88M REV ! 5. SHORT% only .6% !!! 6. :::TOT $CASH $11M+ ] ::: *** COMPARE GV (226 Employee's) with 1 of their largest Competitors Dycom Industries Inc. (DY) (10,822 Employees) in Florida -NYSE with just Single Digit ROE, ROA & PROFITs, but having ONLY :::$18M CASH::: , but Huge $452M DEBT !! (Less than TWICE the CASH of GV's Wallet) while DY has MKT CAP 20X larger than GV ! In my Book of Tech. Analysis GV Value now is at least $2.85 w/o New Contract. But as you indicate With merely 1 or 2 more New (Successful Contracts) GV Future Value (2014) 'could' easily exceed $3.65 by Spring '14 and pass $4.47 NLT Oct. 18, 2014 (Odds High for Florida Hurricane). IMH$O GV (InsiderOwners 24%) possibly NOT releasing NEWS to pull back $Price for Lower $Stock BUYIN (B4 Runup). *** So who got the CREZ Contract - GV or ETT or Quanta ??? "Electric Transmission Texas, LLC (ETT) is proposing to build approximately 400 miles of 345-kV transmission lines as part of an extensive effort to deliver renewable energy to electric customers in Texas. These projects are a portion of a new transmission network that will facilitate the development of wind generation in areas called Competitive Renewable Energy Zones, or CREZ. " What say yee... oh Stock Guru in the Sky.. ? Jun 7 2012, "Goldfield: A 'Four-Bagger' In The Making " Viking
"Houston, May 16, 2012 — Quanta Services, Inc. expanded of its master agreement regarding Competitive Renewable Energy Zone projects assigned to Electric Transmission Texas, LLC by the Public Utility Commission of Texas.
Under the expanded master agreement, Quanta has the exclusive right initially to negotiate the construction of the entire 460 miles of new 345-kV transmission line projects in west Texas. Quanta previously had initial bidding rights to about 250 miles of the projects.
Quanta also won two individual project authorizations under the master agreement for the construction of about 155 miles of ETT's CREZ projects. All of ETT's CREZ projects are planned to be complete by the end of 2013.
ETT, a joint venture between subsidiaries of American Electric Power and MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., plans to build nearly $1.4 billion in CREZ projects by 2013. These projects represent the second largest share of CREZ projects throughout the state that were awarded by the PUCT."
*** Another Poster (Seeking Alpha) Mar 28, 2013 "The company's customers, industrial customers, are diversified, and listed below" :
- South Texas Electric Cooperative, Inc.
- Central Electric Power Cooperative, Inc.
- Florida Power & Light Company
- Duke Energy Corporation
- CPS Energy
- Orlando Utilities Commission
- Santee Cooper (South Carolina Public Service Authority)
- Dominion Resources, Inc.
"The contract works vary each year from those customers, and it is not possible to predict which will be the biggest for any given year. For 2012, the top three customers accounted for 62% of the revenue." ~ Viking
That sounds reasonable.
Also, look at the similarity between this recent acquisition and the expansion into Texas a few years ago. The Texas play took about a year to unfold, as they presumably had to start from scratch. Buying/leasing? the land & equipment in order to prove they were capable of immediately going to work on the CREZ deal.
But C and C is a turnkey operation, ready to go now. If they got part or all of the FPL upgrade, I'll bet they put the new guys on it.
And that's another thing. Maybe now GV is big enough to bid the whole job? $450 + million, 2 yr. job.
Your insight into GV's financials are greatly appreciated by me and most likely by the rest of this board.
Even though the numbers are just an opinion, your DD was applied to the final equation, which makes
your reasoning much more solid to this board.
Keep on posting brother, you re an asset to this board.