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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • joetong419 joetong419 Dec 25, 2011 3:25 AM Flag

    TSRA value stock

    TSRA has $535M in cash; about $10/share

    more than its yearly revenue of $300M.

    Perhaps that's why TSRA low has not gone <$10;

    The bad news is value stocks can stay stuck in low gear for a 'long time'; then finally make its move higher.

    Take a look at a small cap, in another entity -REX with a lot of cash.

    For 2012, expect the usual trading range of 10-22 for TSRA. Earnings lower than expectations make its share stuck in low gear.

    Got to have patience holding TSRA at 16 to go to 22.

    Just my 2 cents

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    • TSRA has zero debt, REX has almost as much debt as it does cash.

      • 1 Reply to ECTBOX
      • Debt can be a tricky concept. One place I'm often reminded of that is in pharma: a company with a promising drug candidate may look debt-free on the books, but have a need to spend most of $a billion to turn that candidate into a product. Call it 'virtual debt.'

        Tessera has a bunch of virtual debt. Probably a need to spend $50MM+ on legal expenses in the next year. Return to semiconductor manufacturing with capital needs that could go into the $hundreds of MM. Sure, you don't have to pay off virtual creditors in a liquidation, but if you're continuing in business, the payments are needed.

    • There ought to be some fireworks this year. The frozen patent infringement suits start to thaw in 2 weeks. Both silent air cooling and MEMS camera get commercial exposure, marking the return of TSRA to manufacturing.

      It may not blow up this year, but extremely high connection density and 3D packaging will hit the market--lots of patents will pop into public view and Tessera is right there in the pile.

      We should have some fuss over Tessera's appeal of the decision in The DRAM Matter--potentially large, and presenting a conundrum that may get it to The Supreme Court (A has a patent, B has a license to practice A's invention for a royalty payment, C has B use the invention on C's behalf but B doesn't pay the royalty [and it's obvious that the charge to C wouldn't cover both the work and the royalty]. Who, if anyone, can A collect from?).

      A year from now, we'll likely be speculating about the outcome of the second Amkor arbitration (expected to finish about 15 months or so from now)

      Should be fun, anyway.

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