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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • lithenatural lithenatural Jul 17, 2002 1:37 PM Flag


    Bought at about 13.5, sold at 18.5. Collected good dividends in between, but it's time to get out.
    It's apparent from the graph, and the technical action, that this stock has seen its best days at 20. He who holds hoping to get out at the very top, well, see March 2000 for that idea.
    NLY price is having trouble rising. And a stock that doesn't rise, goes down. Plain and simple. Wishful thinking is no way to invest. Reality and common sense is.

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    • lithenatural, I respect your opinion and I respect anybody who bought NLY at 13.5. If I bought at 13.5, I am quite sure that I would have sold it shortly after the recent ex. div. date. thus locking in a profit. Congratulations, I admire you. On the other hand, I would be buying more NLY right now.

      I am heartened that anybody would buy or sell NLY based on TA*, that just creates buying opportunities for those of us who invest in this company based on dividend yield. NLY is like a leveraged bond and the stock price will change based on interest rate spreads and the dividend yield. I bought at 20.5 based on my analysis of NLY's dividend history and my projection of what's going to happen to interest rates for the next 3 years. I still think I bought it right at 20.50 and I am considering buying more at 18.5 prior to the earnings announcement. Hope has nothing to do with it. That said, I'm going to put a stop right below the 200 day moving average!

      * Personally, I call this discipline "trend analysis". Whoever called it "technical" had a real sense of humor. It's technical only in the way that ancient oracles in the classical age read the entrails of recently sacrificed chickens in a technical way. The wisdom of the prophesy had more to do with the experience, powers of observation and discipline of the oracle than any pattern in the chicken's guts. That said, TA is a discipline and it works because it minimizes losses, but you should not let it control your better logic.

      • 1 Reply to taiwanheidorn
      • > the stock price will change based on interest rate spreads and the dividend yield <

        Were you being exhaustive in your reasons for a price change? The recent drop happened when there were no changes in rates or in the div.

        NLY suffers when the mkt does well: NLY contends with the large caps for funds. Next time the DOW goes up, say, 200 points, watch NLY drop about 7% the same day.

        In general, people on this board are over-simplifying NLY's situation (way they make profit, the div. level, what affects their ability to invest, etc.) to support some conclusion they have previously made apparently with maybe not as much ability as one would desire. Beware the cheerleaders; they're no more than memories when a stock tanks -- for whatever reason. If you can't muster a little skepticism, you're in the wrong arena here.

        Personal outlook for NLY: the best it's been for the last two years -- barring extremes (such as deep deflation) which should not occur here.

    • > And a stock that doesn't rise, goes down. Plain and simple.

      I guess I might be hallucinating, but over the last 5 years, I've seen many stocks fail to rise and fail to fall both. Most of them bounced around in a narrow range for a few days to a few months then burst out the top end to rise again.

      Good for you on the gains, but as a lot of other folks have said, where is your money better kept?

      I didn't have all that growth, so for me it made sense to pull out to cash for as much of the downturns as I could, then put it back in so I don't miss any divs. If I'd been sitting on this sucker with 13.5 base AND perhaps a dollar or two of divs to drive my true cost down, I would have ignored the downturns to protect myself from the tax implications. What's apparent to me from the graph and the changes in volume is that the behemoths who were screwing us over on the price are finally moving away again. If I had more free money, I'd be buying MORE in this sector, not wandering off into the DOW/NASDAQ wasteland.

    • You obviously didn't sell today and time will tell who is the wisest.

      • 1 Reply to whit31allison
      • obviously i didnt sell today, sold about 2 weeks ago. Yes, time will tell. I just looked at the action of the stock recently, and it's not that strong.
        I also feel that the rest of the market will rebound very soon, and dividend stocks such as this one will decline.
        I wouldn't swear off NLY forever. With such a dividend, it pays to keep an eye on it. I think a better price will be had in the future.

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