E, I�ve spent a good deal of the day over at the NFI board reading the entire thread and also looking at parts of the 10-Q.
I took a quick look see at NFI back in the spring, but didn�t go very far when I saw �sub-prime��..Superior Bank was still fresh in my mind.
This is a substantially more difficult company to initially understand than an MREIT like NLY, and I do have to wonder how many NFI stockholders really understand what they own. I would personally have to spend more time analyzing it than I would some of my other investments before throwing money in. My primary concern right now is the quick run up in price, but I�m not ruling it out as a future investment.
The message string was beneficial to me because the responses to your posts filled in a lot of blanks.
Suggest you go back to the 10-Q and take a look at �Provisions for Credit Losses� and �Premiums for Mortgage Loan Insurance�. E, it looks to me that NFI doesn�t have that much credit risk, and what they have should be pretty well covered by loan loss reserves. I am a little concerned about their loan loss reserve methodology because it appears to be completely backward looking, but that also appears to be substantially mitigated by the declining credit risk. Am I missing something?
I certainly grant your point that there should be legitimate concern about a slow down in refis. The markup on packing and selling originated loans is very integral to their profitability. Well, that�s probably an understatement. The origination fees are obviously not a concern because that income goes to the branch managers anyway.
I�ll have to take issue with you on the quality of the posters over there. Sure some of them are probably traders and momentum players, but I found Early_Retirement_4_Me�s responses to be especially well informed. I would bet that there are others there at least of his caliber.
E, I have to wonder why you posted over there to begin with. You obviously put in a lot of time researching the company, but had no intention of buying it. What I really don�t understand is why you don�t put that kind of effort into researching something that you would consider buying, rather than getting into a pissing contest with the regular posters.
If you find something you�re interested in, why don�t you just ask questions about the things that concern to you? There just doesn�t seem to be any point in challenging everyone on the board. I gained from it, but how many others did.
It�s your life. You can waste it anyway you want to.
<<Most lenders use independent appraisers who have no axe one way or the other.>>
The implication of this statement is not true. It makes no difference if in-house or independent appraisers are used. If NFI wishes its appraisals to be lowballed, that�s what it will get. Please take on faith that I can speak with some authority on this subject.
Since this is just a side issue, let�s not belabor the point at this time and concentrate on more important matters.
you are a silly pathetic shill for somebody e-ball .......
you ask me many basic questions on NFI which a cursory glance of a 10Q could answer and now tell me I knw little about about NFI as if you are the pro ......
you remain a miserable nobody who has yet to explain how despite being neiher long or short NLY or NFI will spend hours searching out obscure issues related to both and then jumping up and down as if you've found the achilles heel in both ..........
no , i don't think you are in cahoots with Pink/Rocker......your too stupid to be associated with them ...........
Hey Elliot, my good friend BONDADDY is absolutely right. These message boards DEMAND real scrutiny from regulators.
Why don't we START by having YAHOO disclose to your office who everybody is?
Is posting on a message board as an insider or Coprporate officer a violation of Reg D?
I bet it is.
Entropy has apparently slipped up when he metioned Mr. Pink as his source on NFI. And now he doesn't want to talk about Mr. Pink. I wonder why? Is this the answer to the long-asked question of why entropy posts so much if he (supposedly) has no position in these stocks?
Read it yourself:
Are you saying you didn't write this? Notice the reference to "Pink". Why don't you want to talk about him? Something to hide?
Answer my question. How did you hear about NFI from Pink? Where is the link?
We went all through this yesterday (yawn)
"the profitability of a CMO against a very flat yield curve and a very steep yield curve are night and day different and right now its working very much FOR them and if my viewpoint that the curve stays steep and even steepens more in 2003 bears out , they will remain VERY profitable "
The 50 BP steepening (which we are rapidly giving back) amounts to less than 6 cents a share per quarter for NFI. Their portfolio is so small (because they securitize most of it) that the carry trade is almost irrelevant here.
Ridin, go look at it and tell us what you find.
I repeat: Bondaddy, I am beginning to wonder if you understand this Company at all.
Your last few posts have been virtual gibberish.
My first post on NFI began:
"For those of you who don't know I am Bondaddy's alter-ego and part-time nemesis.
Our Hero was beating me up about this stock on some other boards so I figured I would take a look."
Here is the link:
Is everything OK?
Remember you HAVE to take the medicine EVERY DAY.
"It was Bondaddy that brought NFI to my attention."
Now you contradict yourself. So who is lying, yourself or yourself?
Your first post on NFI said:
<<I am starting to try to get up to speed here (on the advise of Pink and others).
I have some questions about NFI perhaps some of you could answer:>>
<<You think Mr. Pink is Rocker?>>
I know who Mr. Pink is, in fact I've met him when he was still in the hedge fund hotel. Does he still wear blue jeans to his new office? He is not Rocker, but he is a buddy of Rocker and Einhorn.
Answer my question. Where is the link to Pink's post on NFI that alerted you? Or did you discuss it with him directly?