For pity poop sakes rkkrebs!! If BD could time the market I doubt he'd be on this board. No! He'd be some place warm on his 300 ft. yacht - with the all girl crew - hot and cold running champaign...!
I find that on the whole, considering most of the trash posted on boards, BD does a pretty good job of 'suggesting' what the market will do.concerning MREITS.
Go to your message posted on 12-26-01---Message #1587. Read your last 7 words & tell me you did not have a DOOM & GLOOM opinion 15 months ago. Not trying to argue here just stating facts. and yes Have a great day
hi BD-in the post that I am replying to you called something about NLY "admitting a mistake"---I started buying NLY in March of 2001 around $11.00--both held & traded shares until Aug 2002 around $20.00. During that time I had positions as large as 50,000 shares. Your posts during that period were "perfect" concerning this stock. I have been a Mortgage Reit trader for more than 15 years. These puppies are Cyclical. Thanks for the great job!!! I will be a buyer again in this jewel.
<< Yes, the FED will be active soon >>
thats a 180 degree spin from a few months ago.
<< They will begin buying 10 years to fight deflation, as I predicted they might.>>
wild-assed conjecture .......... would bet a healthy sum if you had any credit you were wrong .
don't recall your TMA call but if you did , its same reason to own NFI and IMH (remember you and Herbie Green predicting the death of NFI about 4 points ago )?
ORCL going no where and back off its highs and you lost your upside in writing calls anyway (nice thing about REIT income with no call risk)..........
i bought AXM at precisely 8.05 and sold in mid $6's shortly thereafter ......... how bad is ACF vs its balls to the wall cheap at 7.50 call ?
FBR I may become an owner of vis this merger although its not clear to me their ARM portfolio is gonna be as big a help going forward .
your problem E is timing .........which as we all know is everything . standing around screaming NLY gonna crash while i took out a cool 22+% return while the markets were in the sh*tter is fact and your call in hindsight was fiction .
funny but I'm the bond_daddy and you're the stock guru but the only call you've made reasonably accurate vs mine has been the 2003 rally in treasuries .............
but I'm not irrational and so i can admit a call went bad and still exit with a steamy profit for the times and think there may be a good re-entry into NLY by year end many points lower ................
entropy I'll give you your due. However, you wrote:
"the continued rally in the 10 year to multi year lows despite the dollar/defecit(substantially more to come)"
I'm not sure about substantially more to come part though. FWIW the chart looks like there is a distinct possibility of a topping pattern hear to me. We'll see.
Yes, the FED will be active soon.
They will begin buying 10 years to fight deflation, as I predicted they might.
For those still keeping score I also predicted (almost to the dollar) the erosion of NLY earnings in Q4, the continued rally in the 10 year to multi year lows despite the dollar/defecit(substantially more to come), the higher REFI index you now refuse to argue with, the out-performance of TMA due to the underwriting, resulting low premiums and low premium ams, the flattening of the MBS carry trade effective yield curve (adjusted for refis), the coming storm over FNMA and FRE gov gtees, and the almost certain SUBSTANTIAL moderation of the Bush tax package due anyday in the Senate.
I also (for the record) stand by my FBR call (up 100%) and my flat statement in Mar of 02 that 10 year treasuries would be a better way to play the YC than MBS REITs. They were.
As for ORCL, it is up from 7 (where you were the most vocal in your criticism) though down (I admit) from my recomendation price.
ACF I would rather not discuss. I am sure you know what I mean (AXM ring any bells?). I am also pretty sure I am not alone in wishing I had NEVER heard of that stock.
Hope you and yours are all well as always,
the MBA refi index just jumped from 6500 to 9000 ....... previous alltime high was just under 7000 .....
this number reflects rates from a few weeks ago and thus likely goes even higher .......
NLY is not in trouble and NLY will continue to be likely a double digit yielding MREIT but i can assure you that Q1 2003 will be lower than Q4 2002 and Q2 2003 dividend will be lower than Q1 ..........