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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • lithenatural lithenatural Sep 21, 2004 1:54 PM Flag

    I've seen it, like, 10 times

    This is the beginning of NLY's usual descent to 16. At around 16, some analysts will downgrade it. Following the downgrade, NLY will return to the 19's. It's like groundhog day. I'm in at around 16.25 or so.

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    • Who says there are no intelligent people on this board?


      I had the name on the tip of my tongue, also, knew it referred to king not Pope..but Pope seemed more apropos for my purposes.

      Again, THANX!

    • Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.
      -- Denis Diderot

    • << As for Kudlow, he seems to have his mind made up and definitely cut Farrell short. I don't think Kudlow knows jacksh*t about mortgages, especially adjustables. All he wanted to home in on is that the treasury curve is flattening (the entire world knows this) and he didn't seem to want to hear about mortgages. >>

      This sounds like half the posters on this board. They have their mind made up that NLY is going to go down. They don't listen to the guidance. When interest rates are going down, NLY is going down. When interest rates are going up, NLY is going down, etc. Is everybody just pessimistic??, because they seem to think it is always going down. Who would sell 4 days before ex-dividend?? Who would go short 4 days before ex-dividend and pay the dividend?? Help me ... I don't understand..

    • The world will not be safe until the last pope is strangled with the entrails of the last priest (religious nut)!

      Gee, I wish I had said that first. But a wiser mind than I beat me to it.

    • Could you please take any religious debates off this board? I enjoy the NLY discussion here. I'd hate to see this board become another CSCO, the biggest cesspool around.

    • "What is your opinion about how prepayments may affect NLY going forward?"

      Yesterday's problem IMO. I think NLY mgt is paying as much attention to this potential problem as they can since it caused so much problem in the recent past. The increase in adjustables will no doubt help but in the end nobody really knows.

      In evaluating my investments, management credibility is always my #1 criterion. Mr Farrell has stated that the prepayment environment has changed significantly for NLY and doesn't seem worried about them right now so I'm inclined to go along. Even if mortgage rates drop a bit from here I think the refi market is relatively dry after the last couple of years but the sustained lower rates I see won't be low enough to cause a refi stampede.

      Of course, because the downside is more limited, so might the upside. Bottom line: divvy looks relatively safe and 10%+ (13-15%ROE) it ain't chopped liver.

    • I knew my comments would bring the wingnuts out of the woodwork!

    • Talk about obviously don't know jack about Opus Dei. The natural progression in the Jewish faith is to follow Jesus and his teachings, much as Paul and the others of that time did. The Jews who are still waiting (over 4000 years now)for the Messiha (sic) have to get real. He came and you missed it!

    • I'm new to reits so would somebody out there help me out. I currently own nly and lum. My concern is the spread on the yield curve. Short term rates are rising while it seems long term rates are falling. I've even heard some comments about a possible inverted yield curve in the future. All seemingly bad for reits. Yet Mike Farrell says the spread on one year and ten year notes is currently 1.75 percent. Can somebody tell me what notes I should be watching. Best I can tell is the perception is kind of bad for reits right now based on rising rates, so my guess is we may go down a little. The reality seems the divy is safe for awhile, so I'm guessing another buying opportunity may present itself. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

    • wallstvet....thanks for the clarification...I stand corrected. Agree in the sense that we were getting valuable information from Mr. Farrell only to have Kudlow run his mouth ad nauseum.

      A question about the dividend news release: What is your opinion about how prepayments may affect NLY going forward? I know this is a loaded question given the disparity we now have between low long term bond yields versus the Fed's accelerating growth perspective. Thanks in advance.

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10.79-0.04(-0.37%)Sep 23 4:02 PMEDT