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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

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  • buster0391 buster0391 Sep 29, 2004 11:41 AM Flag

    11.7% return--don't wait too long

    That return is assuming a $2.00 divident for the next 4 quarters at a price of $17. More realistic IMO is a divy of about 1.80 in the next year, and that may be optimistic. That would be 10.5%, also not bad. My main concern is in 2 quarters, the march divy, after interest rates rise at least 2 more times and mortgage rates stay low. That seems a setup for a really bad divy quarter. Any thoughts on this scenario?

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    • You list genuine concerns.

      The fact that 75% of NLY is in ARMS means that a substantial proportion of their holdings should be able to hold the spread providing the existing divy. They are also largely into AAA. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but I suspect the divvy might hold up or only take a very small hit. They have really great management and they are very nimble as history has demonstrated.

10.78-0.17(-1.55%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT