When a view becomes conventional wisdom – or popular enough to merit cover treatment – odds increase that the news is fully discounted and most likely the trade becomes overcrowded, other than the dividend what does the future hold for NLY?, it appears that rates will be increasing in the future and appears that most investors are in the stock stritcly for the dividend and the fact that the feds are backing MBS,if you look at future analyst earnings estimates for NLY, they are all Lower, sure the feds are backing the MBS, but the margins are going to decrease over time, so this is only a short term rise in margins which in my opinion will not be sustainable, I believe that NLY realizes this by its recent disclosure that it is looking into buying Commercial property to offset what they will not make on MBS in the future....
In the current environment you need to hedge your bets, nothing is guaranteed anymore no matter how well it looks financially, I like NLY but I am hedging my bets you are flying blind if you don't.....
Yes. You should have sold covered calls on your positions....
Earnings were down again in the most recent quarter....and that is what they will use to calculate distributions. Am expecting about 40 cents this time around...
Many laughed when I posted that about 3 weeks ago, but just wait and see.
Disclosure: Long but cautious....won't add more unless it gets to $10
Thanks nlybear, over the next few Months I am confident that the Dow will fall another 500-1000 points, I think the others are starting to see the light now that they have their blinders off. what good is the dividend if we fall back to the $11-12 range???
Everyone knew what happened to LIBOR in the quarter and the results should not be a surprise.
Book value up while the swap liabilities are gone - management turned the ship and did not lose value. The dividend goes up with higher spreads as costs have come down more than the revenues will even with the reduction in Rates on paper. NLY also has the ability to increase leverage when prudent from these historically low levels.
Where is the Problem?
ANALLY is still a REIT and is still subject to the same issues as other reits when attempting to raise capital.
you really need to look up the difference between a MBS REIT and regular kind, and even better, look up what an Agency MBS REIT is.... you've made some pretty ill informed posts in the past, and i guess that one is par for the course.
I hope that you are hedging your bets, do not forget that despite what everyone thinks ANALLY is still a REIT and is still subject to the same issues as other reits when attempting to raise capital.
------And if the stock goes down and the dividend is cut, then what do you do??? ----------
and if horses had feathers, what would you do???? you need to figure out whether the distribution is going to go up or not... Duhhhh,
"He chose.... poorly" .... what is your excuse?