I am not a short term trader. I trade in and out of these stocks, sometimes collecting the dividend and sometimes selling if the price is right.
What has happen to get us to this point in either stock is now in the past. Yes IVR has had a big drop, but NLY has come down some also.
I simply have posed the question, based on what is currently happening and where both stocks are currently at and given the current dividend of each stock, which might be the better near/long term buy if one assumes the current dividend does tell a story about the current condition of the mREIT?
I am simply interested in thoughts on what the numbers are saying about both companies now, not what has happen in the past. The correction is in for IVR, but has NLY really corrected to reflect it's current drop in the dividend?
All comments, good and bad are welcome. Have at it.
Icy, since you are not a long term investor but an in and out (AKA short term) trader, but not a day trader, you are only interested in NLY's short term (within a div quarter) ups-and-downs [shortly after x-div, up shortly before x-div] plus any random ups or downs in between divs that could trigger you to sell and buy back 2X within the quarter instead of just once. No one can predict short term moves exactly but we bet the trend that is occurring even as we post and if it does not happen, we take the div and hope that next quarter will be better for the strategy. Thats all there is. I have a number of slightly used crystal balls in a variety of colors for sale if you are interested. GLTA
drops on a per-centage basis, NLY is doing nearly as poorly at IVR....only a few quarters ago NLY was paying out 75 cents and now down to 57 cents.........about a 25% drop in divvys for NLY as compared to 35% forIVR.
The real issue is BOOK VALUE......never easy for shareholders of ivR to determine current book falue.
no, it was not a "few quarters" ago, it was 2 years ago, and what you failed to understand was that the .75 cents was a one time event because at the end of a year, NLY needs to adjust that divi to take into account the rest of the year so that NLY would still be within it's REIT status range... (+ or - to adjust to 90% of all income for the year)
in reality, NLY's dividends have been averaging around 60 cents to 65 cents for 3 years... and no NLY has not done "NEARLY As Poorly" as IVR, they are worlds apart in how they have done... including IVR only being around for about 3 years...
the only REAL issue is management... how much credibility does Management have... NLY has 15 years of "cred"... where IVR and AGNC.... not so much.....