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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Mar 10, 2013 8:44 PM Flag

    Buy AGNC...sell NLY, Another year goes by, and I will remind you once again...

    I have been having a discussion(?) with Jonkai on the merits of NLY vs AGNC and its brother MTGE for over a year now. He has waxed eloquent over NLY's metrics over AGNC's and how each Q AGNC's dividend will be cut because of their nefarious accounting methods.

    I have periodically(years now) been advising the Longs here to sell NLY and buy AGNC and MTGE for the ff reasons:

    1)"""management"""(especially now, with gal, and her relatives in charge of NLY),

    2)""" dividend history"""(NLY's 8 cuts , in the last 12 quarters...Hello!!...that was only since Dec 2009...EIGHT to ONE cut for AGNC over that same time),

    3)"""PPS appreciation"""(NLY Dec 1, 2009 at 18.49 to the present 15.30 = 3.19 loss...Compare that to AGNC over the same period...26.50 to 32.47 or 5.97 in capital appreciation)

    Do you realize that last difference alone makes a 9.16 difference in Capital Appreciation over that time? Add in the difference in dividends of 7.89 for NLY compared to 17.60 for AGNC for another 9.71 and now you have an $18.87 difference in profit. OK, you paid 18.49 for NLY back then and you had to pay 26.50 for AGNC, or 8.01/share extra, you say.

    Well lets take % then. That 18.49/share NLY purchase on Dec 1, 2009 returned a 3.19 Capital loss(so far) and 7.89 in dividends for 4.70/18.49 = 25.4% = 7.8% annually. AGNC had 5.97 in CA and 17.60 in dividends for 23.57/26.50 = 88.9% = 27.4% annually. That is a 351% annual difference.

    Jonkai will tell you that is the past and just wait until next quarter. "That AGNC can't keep paying their dividend". He has been saying that for over one year now. He has cost you money!! He'll obfuscate and tell you about how I have cost folks all this money. Distractions....

    Well, I am telling Jonkai he has cost all here another 513% this past year. AGNC(CA and div, 7.00) 23.1% from 03/05/12 to 03/05/13. NLY(CA and div, .75) 4.5%. That is a 513% difference just in the past 12 months,when I said, once more, to switch.

    Buy AGNC


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    • No thanks. I dont want to go long on a company that relies 50% on luck for income and the current market conditions are not conducive to taking a new long position on a agency mREIT. I will ride out NLY, take my $500k or so gain since last year, and call it a success. I would have made more from AGNC, but I didnt like the risk profile. Risk vs Reward. Grats on your gain in AGNC but honestly I would never sunk $2.5m into them at any time so I didnt lose anything.

      • 1 Reply to thejumpingsheep
      • Hey Jump,

        I normally thought your posts were pretty straight but then you post this:

        "" take my $500k or so gain since last year"

        You posted that statement on Mar 13th with NLY's PPS closing at 15.39. One year ago on Mar 13, 2012 NLY was at 16.40. You gathered 2.05 in dividends for a net 1.04 gain in one year.

        We divide that into your reported $500k gain and we get the need for a portfolio with 480,769 shares or a current value(3/15/13) of over 7.5 million dollars in NLY. I say B.S.

        What's up sheep?


    • Jonk might be hiding in a hole Doc.
      His comments on seeking alpha have been pathetic lately.

      The latest funny one is he is trying to tell everyone that prepays (CPR) are really "sales" that NLY wants to do.
      But prepays aren't sales, and I'm sure NLY doesn't like loosing money on prepays and watching their MBS pools lose their yield because of prepays.

    • I think I will stick with NLY.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Same clown posts non-stop with aliases and a handful of buddies. all to control the dialogue. They blast the board and think it's their right to bump other posters. Don't let this sales crew take hold here. doc reits and freinds hog the board and insult opposing views.

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