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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jul 5, 2013 12:51 PM Flag

    Can't anyone read charts?

    Good grief, just look at a long term chart. EVERY time it has experienced a dramatic drop like this it has recovered strongly, without fail ever since it went public in '97. The interest rate increase has not been anywhere near dramatic enough to justify this sort of carnage and the Fed has stated unequivocally they intend to hold short term rates low indefinitely - probably well into 2015 at least. Short term rates vs the long term spread result in much better profitability (and dividends) for NLY going forward. Charts don't lie and the long term chart clearly shows this is a superb entry point for anyone who can see through the smoke and mirrors this "market" is trying to fake you out with. Fake out, shake out - it's the age old game. Buy when there is blood in the streets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • but if the markets start to selloff which I think is about to happen where does that put nly 9-10 bucks I don't know I am not long or short would like to buy but think earnings will not be good think divi will be cut

    • You are so right.. I thought I did good at 13:40 I don't have much dry powder to buy more.. I really wish I waited a little bit longer. Happens to me every time. Truth is anyone who bought at 14 got a good price. Still much better than buying at 17 or 18 like many people I know. Everyone needs to relax and be patient

    • Umm, NLY is lower than it was during the 2008-09 crash. = Bad sign.
      NLY is LOWER than it was the last time rates were at 4.5% = REALLY bad sign.
      Whats gonna happen when rates, now at 2.7, go back to 4.0-4.5? Hint: NLY wont be anywhere near $11.
      I'll be a buyer when rates level out, probably a 3.5% and NLY in the low $10s, high $9s.

    • Absolute carnage! 27M shares traded down at one point about 8%... If that isn't the bottom and it looks like it's not... then NLY is a damaged unwanted stock... at least til earnings... then who knows.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It's like the 2010 flash crash in slow motion.

    • I'm a techie. I read charts.
      I cannot predict bottom, but I feel if not already bottom, NLY doesn't have a lot of room to get further south.
      The only hipcup is debt. But I think with strong cash on hand and good PE this is not going under.
      That said, both fundi and techie says a reasonable buy. But I still have more allocated cash to buy more if it goes further, and sufficient powder to chase it once bottom confirmed.


    • Agreed----PE,PB,PS and dividends make this a screaming buy!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Unfortunately for me, I did read the charts and it showed me a bottom at $11.85. Of course that doesn't take into account these shortened trading days and days with less traders, which makes the stock easier to manipulate. Had I seen a chart that had a lower bottom, I would have definately sold my share a couple days ago and repurchases at current levels and gained another 2500 shares. For the longer term, I'm very happy with my purchase!

      • 1 Reply to apdamic
      • Charts can never be an absolute predictor of the absolute bottom but they can certainly give an accurate picture of how the stock has acted over a significant time frame. That's why I like a 10-year picture - you can certainly get a feel if it is in the bottom RANGE or not and I felt like anything in the mid-$12 range was a pretty safe bet over a long term horizon. It was very "bottomy" and even though I am in the hole on my $12.50 buys I feel I will be amply rewarded over the next few years. Even if they cut the dividend another 25% it still is a fantastic yield and over time I am extremely confident it will see $18 again. The "market" usually overshoots crazily on the downside with these stories and this has been a classic over-reaction IMO. I've always had good luck buying stocks at 5-10 year lows and waiting for the rebound and expect the same here.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

10.95+0.05(+0.46%)Aug 25 4:04 PMEDT