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AMBAC FINL GRP INC Message Board

  • esuntexas esuntexas Feb 7, 2013 12:46 AM Flag

    BAC settlement in the Cards?

    Given AGO's win in the courts, how likely is BAC going to settle before this bankruptcy is granted and wrapped up? Let say if $2B falls from the Countrywide sky onto the laps of ABKFQ, what will the share price be then?

    I am long 100K shares at the present time.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Need a heck of a lot more than $2B to get common back in the money. They owe half of that to the creditors in unpaid interest for 2 years. (an exaggeration, but not by much probably). At any rate by the time you take the 1.6B they owe senior creditors and add in the interest they owe for the last two years they are close to break even and you haven't even addressed the policy holders that are owed money. If it gets up to 10 or $12B you are starting to get in the money. Certainly, there would be a short term significant bounce on the news, but going long after the news is still in the high risk category as opposed to the current higher than powerball odds. There is only a month left on the POR, so we will see what we will see.