Looking at the indicators (RSI, STO, MFI) for DDD, XONE SSYS & ONVO, most say overbought for all in 3D printing sector. The last time the charts looked like this, was in mid January. There was a major correction at that time. The current set-up looks almost identical. Time for me to sell.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of ONVO (by far my favorite), but right now seems like the time to sell - I cant argue with history. I'm sure I'll buy back in soon.
Mixed ending today with ONVO/DDD/XONE all down and SSYS slightly up. Still looks like the end of the upward trend to me. Honestly though I was not expecting that much of a drop in ONVO.
If they are all down tomorrow, then that will suggest the beginning of a longer downward correction.
Another thing that might mix things up a little is the fact that SSYS just had a good earnings report. SSYS has a history of trending up for a while after a positive earnings report.
This single point might be enough to offset everything else. I guess there is a reason they call it a speculative stock - lots of speculation.
Not sure yet. As of this post OVVO is down, SSYS is up and DDD is about even. If they all close down, then I would be more confident that this is an industry wide correction. If they closed mixed, then I'd be less confident over the short term. In that case ONVO might recover above 5 before the longer term correction begins.
If all three close down and a longer term correction begins similar to the one in January, then I would wait for SSYS to start recovering before I looked to buy back into ONVO. After the January-March correction, SSYS was the first to recover, then DDD & ONVO followed shortly after.
This is all based on the assumption that history has a tendency to repeat itself & you know what they say about people who assume ;)
Daniel... good call of the top of this sawtooth... :-) We seem unable to sustain a run of more than about 10% before a downturn of most of that. For the last 20 days or so, we are still trending upwards generally....and so this potential to 'sell half' at the next run up is looking more attractive. Heck, I could have reimbursed my entire investment here on the last 3 of these sawteeth...and still have all my stock ! ...and I will be watching the long term RSI a lot closer now....thanks... Annie PS of course, by the time I figure this out, everyone else does too and it no longer works ! GRIN
Daniel ... The entire market is way overdue for a correction and Onvo has made a nice run ,,,I am not in the camp that Onvo is a takeover candidate , pink sheeters are rarely taken over .... But you can have it both ways ... IMO you should have a core position if you are a true believer ,,, but you can also have a trading group ... sell half your position .. If you are right and it corrects , you can buy more at lower prices .. if you are wrong ,,, then you can still ride it up ... JMO
I believe that SSYS disclosed a nice earnings report today, so some of the continued 3D momentum could be quite legitimate. SSYS going over 100$ for example. Another thing to remember, is that ONVO is also a biotech stock, so it doesn't follow the same trends as the aforementioned companies.
It is true that ONVO is biotech and SSYS/DDD are not, but regardless of how they are categorized, they do 'tend' to follow in the same pattern. I agree that the manufacturing that SSYS/DDD are not in the same industry as bioprinting. In this case the association seems to be less about the industry and the perceived link between the 3D printing itself.
I can tell myself that they are in different industries all day, but ignoring the fact that they tend to rise and fall together seems to be a mistake (imo).
I dont buy your view.... I watch ONVO's RSI in 14 day and over longer time frames closely.... last time the long duration RSI was in the 80 range (mid Jan as you say ) we ran upward from 2.50 up to a 4.50 (rough average) for over a month after reaching that level... there was no 'major correction'... after a monthlong ride upward, there was just a slow downward slide that is really just reversing now on positive news and PR.
Sell if you want but this momentum is far from exhausted....
By no means am I absolutely positive on this, but one problem with focusing only on ONVO is that the larger picture can be missed.
When we look at DDD, SSYS, & ONVO's trends going into January, they mirror the current trends. All three were in the overbought area simultaneously on Jan 9th, then again on Jan 18th. Both times there was a correction with one being a major correction that lasted for months.
Looking at the charts now, DDD and SSYS are overbought on more than one indicator. ONVO is too. The best argument I can see to wait to sell is that the RSI for ONVO is not quite as high as it was back in Jan so one 'might' get a little more profit in waiting, but if the overcorrection is now, then waiting would mean that losses would be suffered for months before the price comes back up. If I allow myself to pin all my hopes on one indicator in one stock and ignore all the other signs I set myself up for failure.
My confidence level is by no means 100%. I sold, but I did not short (too much of a chicken for that).
You can try to swing trade ONVO all you want but when the day comes for it to POP it will not stop rising, it will become a major buy out target with bidding wars from big medical. The patents are extremely valuable one of a kind incorporated with the latest in 3D
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Makes sense for the long run & in my personal opinion I believe ONVO will be big too. But for now there are more signs saying sell than saying hold. Take the RSI for example, the other times it has looked like this was just before a major correction. When I check the charts for SSYS & DDD, their RSI, STO & MFI all look like they did back in mid January before the whole industry started dropping and continued to do so for 3 months.
Regardless of how much I agree that the company is a profit maker over the long term, I can't ignore the here and now.