It would be considerate of fellow board members to let us know you are posting a two year old post. It's my own fault for not checking the date before wasting several minutes I needed this morning.
small position full hedge
no, i have not gone heavy short yet, i will be back when the time is right to announce that i will be going heavy short -- remember, i only pile into the short on the way down for the heaviest part of the short entry -- selling short into a falling stock price only fuels the fire paired with the longs selling at same time
for LONGs information, it appears the heavy buyers are the asian funds for these types of REITs -- that is also good information for the shorts to know before they go piling in too soon on a hope to "top pick" a stock price -- do not do that, that is dangerous -- be patient shorts, you will get your glorious chance
look pal, i don't cross lines until the other guy crosses my line and then i either force them back across the line back to where they belong, or i ambush them into a trap -- you don't think i did my research -- i did you a favor posting some of my research and you flat out deny i did any research whatsoever -- that makes you look stupid, but hell, if that's how you do your business, more power to ya -- don't bother checking to see if my research i posted is correct, that would be too much for you -- but this is america and i can waste as much space as i like cuz i don't recall you owning yahoo or their message boards
see you under 10 bucks a share with that dividend cut
will that be coincidence that i made money on the short? will you then say i did my research or will we hear more excuses from you that the company colleague didn't do his work and blame your losses on others
Funnie said....."gosh, i didn't know they made guys like you dumb enough to assume the other guy has not done any research"
OK Funnie....you've crossed the line....several here have been asked in a pleasant tone several times to explain your short thesis. Any intelligent long benefits from the presentation of a well reasoned short thesis. You've been here for a couple of weeks so far....and it is obvious you have nothing...nada....zippo literally and figuratively (including that skull cavity of your which echos due to emptiness). You've tried scare tactics such as..."I'm thinking HCN is going to zero." You have delivered ZERO intelligent commentary. You tried a little bit but everthing you have said is way off the mark and makes it obvious that you have not studied HCN.
You may well make some money via your short position.....but it will be purely coincidental luck.....because you have nothing.....Funnie = Blind Squirrel that MIGHT find an acorn. Say something intelligent OR quit wasting the unlimited supply of bandwidth.
gosh, i didn't know they made guys like you dumb enough to assume the other guy has not done any research, but hey, whatever floats your boat -- i'm glad you are one of the longs willing to hold onto your stock so i can short some more at higher prices
why don't you go do what i did and check out my work
there is only one REIT that will be worth a buy at the low, but you have to figure that one out for yourself -- i don't feel like leading the uneducated around by the hand on a full time basis
Jeff said...."I guess that my concern with REITs in general is a suspicion that the refinancing will go much worse than many expect and the situation will be almost complete across the industry. The loan to values will not work to refinance in many instances and additionally the values believed to be there today might be fiction. Additionally for many reasons it will become harder for a REIT to lease property."
The entirety of your statement above is consistent with my opinions regarding REIT's. That is why I will not even consider owning REIT commons no matter how good the opportunity looks. In fact, I will only own the REIT's whose balance sheet my own analysis shows to be very strong. HCN is in this crowd. If it were not for HCN's development pipeline, HCN would be bullet-proof. Even with the development pipeline, HCN is in good shape. I bought most of my REIT preferreds at prices 30-40% below todays still substantially discounted prices. Therefore, my yields based upon purchase price are in the range of 15-20%. Regarding property LTV's when it comes time to finance (or refi), this is in fact an important statisitic. Therefore, I pay attention to the weighted average acquisition date for the REIT's entire portfolio (Bairdgs helped me recognize the importance of this analysis). Reliable data indicate that properties (and weighted average entire portfolios) that were the purchased/acquired/completed prior to 2003 will be worth the carryied book value or more. Further if you look at HCN, and every other REIT's where I own preferreds, only a tiny portion of the REIT's assets are encumbered with existing mortgage loans. Therefore, there is a huge untapped capacity for mortgage loans to manage upcoming unsecured debt/revolver/line of credit/bond maturities.
It is also true that all REIT's across the board (inclusive of HCN) are going to struggle to maintain high occupancy rates. However, HCN's revenue and NOI will actually significantly increase as the development pipeline goes into service over the next 1-1/2 years. So the big "topline" drop off that Funnie refers to will not materialize.
MHO is that Funnie has done zero real research on HCN.