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Welltower Inc. Message Board

  • prophet43m prophet43m Jun 24, 2009 7:27 PM Flag

    Funnie....We Are Still Waiting For An Intelligent Comment

    Funnie....We are still waiting for an intelligent comment from you. So far the scoreboard still read ZERO....ZIPPO.....NADA

    Say something intelligent OR stop wasting the unlimited supply of bandwidth.

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    • hey prophylactic

      i am not going to do your homework -- i work for myself -- if you can't see the deterioration in the balance sheet in cash position compared to june 30 2008, and the increasing deterioration in the company's fundamentals, then you need to college class in finance 101 -- i keep warning the LONGs on this message board that his company's fundamentals and balance sheets are problematic -- the response i receive is similar to the longs that defended Lehman Brothers in the Summer of 2008 when Dick Fuld publicity stated that Lehman Brothers was in great shape and the fundamentals were sound -- we all know what happened in September in 2008

      you guys will see that i will be right

    • you just keep buying and i will just keep selling -- we will see who gets the pleasure and who gets the pain

    • say P., will you please remind me which are the REIT preferreds you hold and consider safe? (i realize you got them much cheaper). thanks.

      • 2 Replies to sgwdjw
      • Industrial/Flex - PSB. PSB has essentially zero debt. Revenues are declining rapidly but PSB will almost certainly emerge from the Great Recession a larger and stronger company than it was at the beginning of the Great Recession. Spin off from PSA. PSB has the simplest balance sheet of any REIT I know of to understand. Management team is in defensive mode. Focused on 7 US markets a few of which are in the most severe recession areas such as So Cal. Near zero in progress development.

        Self Storage - PSA. PSA has extremely low debt. Revenues are declining but PSA will clearly survive and in fact thrive again. Has significant European self storage joint venture which is a drag on earnings now but my provide huge growth in the future. Storage properties in most US States. Management team is in defensive mode. Near Zero development in progress.

        Apartment - PPS. PPS is a relatively small, regional apartment owner. Asset areas include Atlanta (largest), Tampa and Orlando (both in severe recession), Charlotte (severe recession), Dallas, Austin, Houston and few others but I can't recall at the moment. Very managable debt service and debt maturities. Management team is in defensive mode. Significant but very managable development in progress inclusive of a small portfolio of condo conversions and ground up condo development. Apartment REIT's are quite safe b/c they have access to relatively unlimited Fannie/Freddie financing at very attractive terms.

        Healthcare - HCN. HCN of course despite FunnieBucket's comments. HCN is broadly invested in healthcare real estate (Indepenent Living, Assisted Living, Skilled Nursing, CCRC's - Continuing Care Retirement Community, Medical Office Buildings, and Specialty Care Hospitals).
        As previously stated, HCN would be bulletproof if it were not for their rather large development pipeline. Even with the rather large development pipeline, HCN's debt service and debt maturities are very managable. HCN's senior housing segments have access to Fannie/Freddie financing. Also, makes loans to senior housing operators. Management team is in defensive mode.

        Healthcare - OHI. Very, very little debt. Predominantly invested in skilled nursing real estate. Also, makes loans to senior housing operators. Management team is in defensive mode.

        Office - HRP. Too many this company is an ugly duckling as HRP showed no dividend growth for the 2000-2007 period when many well regarded Office REIT's (and REIT's of other stripes) were growing their dividends quite rapidly. The flip side is that HRP entered this downturn in much better shape than the "well regarded" REIT's previously mentioned. Some also view HRP negatively because they don't have any "Trophy" assets (i.e. no Manhattan office buildings). HRP's debt service and debt maturities are very managable. But I do have a problem with HRP....of all the REIT's that I favor.....HRP has the only managment team that concerns me.....the HRP management team is NOT playing defense.....I think they should be. Don't get me wrong, HRP is in very good shape (better than most) but I am concerned b/c HRP is technically externally managed (by RMR) and the compensation agreement is based upon the dollar value of assets under management, dollar value under development, and RMR also gets leasing commissions. I worry that the RMR's judgement may be clouded by their compensation structure.

        That's enough for now. Good Luck!

      • SGWDJW:

        I own PREFERRED shares of the REIT's listed below. I must make the following qualifications:

        (1) I own ONLY PREFERRED shares and at this time I am unwilling to buy common shares of ANY REIT. My unwillingness to buy REIT commons extends to the entire REIT universe, as I believe 100% of all commercial property is still deflating from a dramatic bubble. While numerous REIT management teams maintained discipline and did not subject the shareholder's company to needless risk, each and every REIT will be negatively impacted due to the still rising cap rates/decline real estate value, unemployment, declining occupancies, declining rental rates, and MOST IMPORTANTLY the lack of adequate capital required to refinance the mountain of commericial real estate loans coming due between now and the end of 2012.

        (2) A REIT need not thrive....rather only survive......for a preferred investment to be very successful.

        (3) There are almost certainly safer REIT's than the one's I have listed below. I began researching the industry and investing in REIT's in early 2009 when the whole stock market started falling apart. My coverage universe of REIT's includes less than 15. Rather than representing the absolute safest REITs, the REIT PREFERRED's I own represent the REIT PREFERRED's that offered the best risk adjusted return opportunity at the time of my investment which was Feb, Mar, Apr, and to a small extent early May 2009. That said, I am confident that all of the REIT's listed below will survive the GREAT RECESSION and pay all their preferred dividends.

        (4) I have tried to provide diversified list of REIT's by commericial property type with the exception of hotel/hospitality (I am not comfortable with the sub-sector) and Retail. I have also not included any of the "pseudo" REIT's such as mortgage/financial REITs. Nor have I have included BDC's.

        ..........See Next Post............

70.97+0.11(+0.16%)Oct 25 4:02 PMEDT