Good point. I pose this question to the longs, though.... Why would Mass choose MGM over 3 other casino companies that aren't massively indebted. Furthermore, why would Mass choose MGM which has a poorer location (in the minds of a lot of locals)? It is not like Penn and MGM can make a deal btwn each other- first the municipality approves potential plans and then the voters vote on it. MGM is not likely to win.
I'm not long MGM (yet). But Penn could back out of Mass if MGM agrees to the same in Maryland. One competitor has already backed out of Sprintgfield bid. MGM could have been fighting for leverage against Penn.
MGM would do well with the money in and around Boston. They will need to get their name off Foxwood's buildings in Conn though. People of Mass will keep their money in Mass.
If They get Mass and it looks like they can safely fund it alongside building in Cotai, then I will gamble on MGM to survive. But I won't risk a cent until it's clear they can pull it off. i don't care about timing potential bottoms. The company has to be profitable to interest me.