Why Saudi and American bluffing won't lower oil prices (Hint: It doesn't work when people know you're bluffing)
by Kurt Cobb
I buy oil because I know to make money from it. Its predictable if you know the set up and confirmation. Setup: When the dollar goes up, ERX goes down, when the dollar goes down, ERX goes up. Confirmation: ERX is 99% correlated with SPY. Use SPY as a proxy, use your oscillators as triggers to confirm your buy and sell signals. And since the bullish trend continues - you see higher highs and higher lows, it only makes sense to follow the trend and buy the pullback/dip. The buy signal just triggered a few minutes ago, all we need is more buying volume to push this market higher.
BC, what happened. You use to be bright eyed, bushy tail perma bull. Did the naysayers, professional losers and perma bear finally get you?
Did you forget that earnings season is just 6 days away? If you check, the market is historically higher during earnings season.
This not May, its April.
Second look at the SPY, its hovering at its 10 day moving average, hardly a sell signal - just profit taking. That's why I'm buying ERX at the next average true range: $46.50, TNA at $57.