The Zeke well tested on September 10, 2013 at a gross rate of approximately 312 barrels of oil per day and 89 thousand cubic feet of gas per day on a 38/64” choke with flowing tubing pressure of 480 psi, or net 268 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
About what I was thinking. Should be about 750 bble/day net between Rocky and Zeke. That would put current production right around the 3,000 bble/day mark. I'm hoping for 3,100 bble/day avg in the 4th qtr - barring no disruptions. GLTA
Glad I am out. You saw the market reaction to Zeke today. Stock got CLOBBERED
Yes this is not a great well they had been hoping for. Problems look to be just around the corner.
Company lucky to be trading above $2 a share at this point
Volatility is fine in this name. The stock is only moving around single millions market cap wise.
If you take anything away from yesterday your missing the picture. If the market wanted to penalize these guys, the stock would be lower than the 52 week low.
Fundamentals are very strong.
They predicted that this well would be around 300 barrels of oil per day and it came in pretty close to the prediction. They did not ever tell anyone that this well would be a large a flow as the first well.
Was disappointing to see today's action. Was it sell the news? Disappointed by the results?
The Zeke results announced today seemed to me to be within expectations. However, there are a couple of things I did not like:
1) the choke is pretty wide open to get the Zeke flows they announced
2) would think they could have updated the Rocky rates after the "clean up" and a couple weeks of production
Baby Face, is it possible that you are being a bit conservative on the production estimates, both on a current basis, and what is expected for the fourth quarter. After looking through the second quarter report, it appears as though they produced 2500 boepd, with Main Pass issues causing a loss of 150 boepd, Grand Bay gas lift issues causing a loss of over 500 boepd. With Main Pass back online (150 boepd), Zeke and Rocky drilled and producing (750 boepd) and some additional oil production due to the PEP program, wouldn't you expect to see current production well north of 3000 boepd? Shouldn't it be closer to 3,300 - 3,500 boepd currently? And if they have resolved the Grand Bay gas lift issues, couldn't one expect more?
Thanks for the great contributions to the board.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well....maybe if everything went optimal in the 4th qtr, they could get up to 3,300 - 3,500. However, I've found that rarely does everything go optimal in the oil business. Looking at SARA's last year or so, they have been sub-optimal versus production estimates/forecasts.
I went with conservative guesses with Rocky and Zeke - and they came in pretty close to those guesses. So, I'll stick with my 3,100 avg bble/day guestimate for the 4th qtr.
Not sure if they analysts have projections for these individual wells. From the conference calls I listened to, they stated that they felt Zeke would have a lower production rate than Rocky given the limited horizontal section in Zeke compared to Rocky.
I think the wells came in as expected. Now the question is, will they hold up and produce like this for quite some time? We should get some hints when SONRIS starts reporting monthly production (there is a lag of a couple of months before reporting monthly production numbers).