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Ciber, Inc. Message Board

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  • johnmg47 johnmg47 Dec 29, 2000 7:53 PM Flag

    Can someone explain.....

    Suddenly trapped in 2 separate death spirals:
    most overvalued tech market in history, and now a
    priced-in slowdown in corporate tech spending worldwide.


    It's been all downhill for a solid year except for a
    brief moment of hope last year when I finally got out
    of this POS and sold for good. And still people are
    looking at the value inherent in CBR, the products, the
    company, etc. Wake up guys. It's not about the company -
    it's about the tape. Investors have listened to the
    brokerages' BS about "buy and hold" for so long that they've
    forgotten their senses. If there's a fire in your house you
    GET OUT. You don't look at the long term benefits of
    it. Long term tech investors in these emerging
    technologies have been taken out back and SHOT DEAD. (If you
    just lost 50% this year you were lucky.) For every one
    that's hit the jackpot (and those jackpots are dwindling
    daily), there's been 10 that have ended up like
    CBR.

    Also, I don't see any institutional people trading from
    a buy and hold frame of reference. How they feel
    about the company is one thing, what the tape tells
    them about buying it is another. And they have been
    SELLING en masse, into ANY kind of rally: the same guys
    that gave you the outrageous buy recommendations
    earlier this year, are cleaning investors clocks now
    because their firms are all NET SHORT. That's why they
    keep coming out with these downgrades when the techs
    are down - to drive them down further and thus make
    more money off the lemmings they've trained for 7
    years to go long on any dip. It's like shooting fish in
    a barrel. Easy pickins. Today was a perfect
    example: all the techs that nearly doubled in the last 4
    days on people hoping a new tech trend has begun, got
    clobbered for 15-20%. There haven't been 5 consecutive up
    days on the NAZ in 4 months that I can remember. If
    there are 3 or 4 up days, all the sellers come in to
    take the profits they've got, and short the same
    stocks they had bought, just when it looks like its safe
    for you to go back in the water and buy them again.
    Long termers wait for a trend change - as soon as the
    trend change seems established - the institutional
    shorts clobber it for all its worth, break it, and ride
    it to new lows.

    It is estimated that 2.5
    Trillion dollars has been lost in the last 9 months by
    U.S. buy and holders, and fools buying the latest dip.
    How many failed rallies have there been: 50? 60? and
    yet people keep hoping "This has GOT to be the
    bottom."

    You know when it will be the bottom? When there is NO
    ONE LEFT STANDING TO BUY. When no one will be willing
    to buy anything tech. When there will be no more
    7-10% one-day rallies, and people finally give up. Then
    all the big houses will entice people back into the
    game a little bit at a time, and quietly begin
    accumulating new money again. It's precisely what's called
    "sector rotation". Just look at the energy, medical/HMO
    and drug stocks this year - all at 52 week highs.
    What a crock: corporate people in those companies make
    money by stealing from Americans and overcharging them.
    And yet they are the Wall Street darlings this year.
    But just watch what happens to them NEXT year.

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    • If you look at what I am saying, and remove any
      displeasure for the way I present myself, you'll see that
      what you've experienced with stocks like CBR is the
      criminal intent of a Wall Street Oligarchy bent on
      defrauding small investors and stealing their savings. Hell,
      they even steal from each other! What they say is an
      advertising ploy and a hustle - what they actually do is prey
      on the weak and defenseless (just look at tech
      companies right now) and play an endless game of pump and
      dump.

      Bull markets are all pump, bears are all dump. But
      they only let you play one way, while they play BOTH
      ways. And when they are done destroying this market,
      they will need to pump it up again or there won't be
      any game anymore, now will there?

      The whole
      goal of investing in stocks is not about investing at
      all: it's about playing the game, and playing it to
      win. To buy when stocks go up, and sell when they go
      down, and don't stick around long enough for someone to
      change their mind. I rarely even hold stocks overnight
      anymore, because you never know what you've got when you
      wake up in the morning. Could be cut in half like FFIV
      and about 500 other tech stocks in the last 4 months.
      Shorting for the last 4 months has been almost EFFORTLESS.
      There's only about 4 or 5 up days a month, and they're
      sudden explosive spikes that make shorting even easier,
      because the stocks stick their necks out so far as people
      chase them.

      You may say that shorts have no
      respect, but in fact we do. We respect pythons in the
      jungle and tread carefully when near them. But when
      there's only 5 lions and 600 defenseless sheep, we eat,
      and eat big. And when the bulls are running in
      Pamplona we run with them too, we don't 'short' them, we
      run with them. The true successful trader is somewhat
      of a jackal, a survival jack-of-all-trades, so to
      speak.

      If a person is willing to change their minds, and
      trade small, and make profitability instead of one-shot
      homeruns their priority, you can do very very well in this
      kind of market. Freed from the idea of being right or
      wrong or holding to wishes or beliefs, you can simply
      respond to what's in front of you. And what's in front of
      you here is a tech wreck with no end in sight, YET.
      If you take out all 1999-Y2K and draw a line through
      all the NAZ tops prior to 1999-Y2K , you get 2700 at
      the top, and 1800 at the bottom, and that still
      preserves the bull trend from 1990. Will it bottom there? I
      don't know, but the symmetry on the chart seems to
      indicate it could eventually hit near the 1998 lows, and
      that's a long way down from here.

      I sold CBR at
      39 almost 2 years ago, and sweated doing it because
      I thought that I was throwing away a long time
      value holding. However, the only value in investing is
      your money - nothing else. Once a year or so I stop in
      on CBR to see how much money people have lost with
      it that year, and encourage people to get out. If
      INTC can't make money, why should CBR?

      • 1 Reply to johnmg47
      • Thanks for your discertation on Ciber and tech
        stocks.
        This industry group suffers from a reactive
        versus proactive management philosphy, in short they
        would not know an opportunity if it was running over
        them in a bulldozer.
        Like you I got out of Ciber
        but at a loss to offset soem gains elsewhere.
        I
        wish I could forecast some goodness for this sector
        but maybe 2001 numbers will look OK when compared to
        2000.
        I have no advice to offer however my dollars in the
        bond market that everyone was laughing at in March
        look pretty good now.
        I still say the only hope
        here in M&A.

 
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