PTNR = 6.11 USD, after the earnings announcement results - SOON.
I'm going to expose you 10 major problems that I believe you should know about PTNR, I'll explain why In my humble opinion PTNR is going to 6.11$ in a few weeks.
1) Competition is HERE and NOW and MORE is coming - these days there are 3 big cellular companies at Israel, 3 virtual are getting in at the next few weeks and other 2 with a separated infrastructure at about a month – The Market is saturated already and every person has a cell phone at Israel this days – which means that every company will get 20%-40% decrease from its current cake portion – the incomes will divide into 8 companies!!! Now there are ONLY 3 (Partner, Cellcom and Pelephone).
2) The Competition got the companies to lower their prices MUCH lower from last month's sometimes 20%-40%.
3) Regulations: A. "Nituk Zika" - which means people gets the refunds for the Cell phone device even if the device was bought outside of the company – there are two loses from this regulation to Partner, first no incomes from devices (which was most of the profit for last two quarters!!!) and second a refund for voice calls which gets the RPU much lower than expected. – this regulation were published at the TV shows and showed how to purchase the device outside of the cellular company and get sometimes 2-3 times the price they paid as a Refund from the cellular company. B. "Kisuriot" – which means – no more connection fees from other cellular companies when uses the neighbor's network again - MUCH Less incomes.
4) Big Loans interest burden – pays much more interest for getting the financing for the activity of the company.
5) Abroad fees are DOWN – I guess 50%-70% from last year – This days people use SMARTPHONES, last year when people took their Cell phone to vacations they paid MUCH more than this days that people took their SMARTPHONES and used Wii-Fii at everywhere to connect to applications that allows FREE Unlimited Voice/Text/Video communication.
6) The ILS/USD situation from last year to this days, the Dollar is much higher this days, Partner buys the devices with USD and SELLS it at ILS, could make a Lose situation if they got stocks that makes them sell the devices 2 times higher than the stores at the streets, as mentioned before, the regulations makes the companies GIVE a FULL Refund for the device that bought outside of Partner, sometimes 120%-200% times from the regular price.
7) People waited to get the dividend, and now when they got it, I believe they will get rid of PTNR.
8) No more incomes from content as before - these days applications are downloaded directly thru the Appstore/Android Store and Partner doesn't get a crumb from it like before – every step is used true a Credit card and not as before at the Partner's invoice – times as changed.
9) No more growth engines for incomes– I don't see now any new ideas for future.
10) Warning about profits problems – if I'm right and there will be a problem with the incomes for all the reasons mentioned, Even before the earnings announcement Partner could tell the public about it.
11) I can't see a good reason for a positive way here.
I'll appreciate your comments before and after the earnings announcement.
If the margins and market suck as bad as you say, why would more competitors be entering the market? Just doesn't make any sense at all to say these two things and ruins your whole arguement for them being a bad investment and makes me wonder if you're just a PUT buyer shorting and trying to make everyone scared and sell so you can make your cash from the downside you create.
Shorts are so stupid - you think we're dumb yet fail to realize that betting on the downside when the overall trend is up means you're the stupid ones.
Looks to me like your short position had to cover recently.
PTNR is making money, tooks some hits to revenues because of tarrifs.
They don't have a deficit equity position, that negative is from treasury stock buyback.
Total Equity at end of Q3 2011 was 206 million US dollars, PTNR made .30/eps and paid a dividend of .24 for Q3.
Look like revenues are increasing despite the above posters claims of competition.
"The decreases were partially offset by the positive impact on revenues from the continued growth in the cellular subscriber base and increased revenues from data and content services. Equipment revenues totaled NIS 385 million (US$ 104 million) in Q3 2011, increasing by 99% compared with Q3 2010. The increase largely reflects an increase in the average revenue per handset, largely due to the proportion of smartphones sold."
A little early to call, since next earnings don't come out until Feb. Further, I see a fwd p/e of 6 and growing ... kind of hard to see it going down from here unless they shrink earnings, but all analyst forecasts in USD have this at around a 5% growth long term and >10% next year.
Their balance sheet most concerns me. Negative net equity, but this was not much of a concern of mine as I saw that the balance sheet issues have been fully baked into the market cap (cut by 50% in the past months)... so capital risk is limited while this earns good income.
But we will see, as you could certainly be correct. I'd wait to make calls on this one, though, until we know more about Euro debt structure and what the returned CEO's plan is to take PTNR into the 21st century (albeit 10 yrs too late)...