I will admit upfront that AF drives me nuts with his articles. Problem is, AF is 21 for 21 when (and only when) he sticks to the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule. If you don't have this rule committed to memory, it is easy to find my searching for the exact phrase. As late as Jan 20th, there were articles slamming the rule and trumpeting the end of the rules perfect score because CLSN was going explode and stay on top. That isn't looking like a good call.
Short version: Company needs $300 million market cap BEFORE releasing final trial results. Precisely - companies with market cap under $300 million are 0 for 21 on their trial results. Of course, a lot of this hinges on what date is used to determine ""several months before trial data released". If one uses March, 2012, both KERX and DCTH qualify. If one uses November, 2012, they don't.
Being over $1 billion in market cap gets you a 77% chance of phase III success.
First off, the Feuerstein-Ratain rule is very impressive but lets be clear about this. The "so-called" Feuerstein-Ratain rule is actually an analysis presented in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute by researchers not named Feuerstein or Ratain. Ever the self-promoter Feuerstein attached his moniker to this bit of factual data along with Dr. Mark Ratain MD, who I believe actually noted JONCI's research article. Feuerstein has "no rule", he has "no analytical research skills" and he has "no idea how to evaluate research design" other than what his consultants tell him. He is, simply put, a shill with a very big ego.