Will the shorts be able to hold this back any longer?
Shorts have had everything going their way so far with tax loss sellers and the CRL. The problem they face now is the fact that 17 million shares need to be covered. How are they going to do that with the volumje being so low lately. I figure the same companies that have shorted this stock at the $3.50,$4.00 and up levels, have been buying shares to hedge their short shares. That way they can profit from the shares they have in the $2.25-$2.75 and sell those shares to themselves to cover when the stock goes back up. They will still profit from the shares they shorted at $4.00 and above and profit from the shares they have bought in the $2.25-$2.75 range.
One thing that is guaranteed is the fact that they will not lose money no matter what the stock price does from here on out. All you people in here, that are hoping the shorts get screwed, is not going to happen. They are much smarter than you think. They may have known about the manufacturing CRL but have not been able to get any massive sell off to cover any portion of their short sales. They are now protecting themselves because the mass sell off did not materialize.By buying shares now, they can cause a "BEAR RAID by selling the shares they have bought to themselves for a profit and causing a drop in price as they do it. You will know when the approval is coming. The volume will go up and the price will go down.
Interesting, so do you expect the price to stay at these levels or decrease on approval? I read some resources that alluded to the pps decreasing after approval during the first PDUFA. IMO, the CRL seems to have had thwarted an approval-based mass sell-off. Also, I really think the general retail investor is just in it until approval, which probably bodes well for the shorts. How will the price maintain or even pop, if both the shorts will not cover and general investors selling off upon approval. Navidea has a great pipeline and I think their management is progressive. They even seem to care about the investors (i.e. PR, internal purchases for a show of confidence, etc... ). However, this is still a small pharma company, which is a very tough environment for any retail investor to play in. Manipulation is rampant and no one is really that honest (holding past approval, my #$%$). IMO, the only thing that we have going is the unknown, if that element even exists anymore? The unknown is what drove the stock to $5+.
I agree that it is likely we will see a sell off upon approval but based on a price increase to the $5 to $7 range is what I think it will take to get that sell off the institutions and shorts (same group to some extent - high level of overlap in other words). Nothing else has caused a sell off so I think the only thing left is a small price movement to $5 to $7 range is what the shorts know it will take. They are primarily institutional hedge funds, so they come out good either way since they use the short position to protect the down side risk for their long position which is very risky in biotech as you mentioned. We've seen and have factual evidence that there is no "VOLUME" (that's the key, volume) downward movement, even with a CRL. Hence, it seems there is not and will not be a downward movement with volume, the shorts must must must have the volume aspect of a movement up or down, that will happen unless you think LS will be denied and I would not count on that happening. So the only volume move, again must must must be a "VOLUME MOVE", is a price move to $5 to $7 which I think will give the shorts a volume move to cover. It may be that it occurs like this and then with the shorts mostly out at the $5 to $7 range, we move up from there to something like the $9 to $12 range or maybe temporarily higher and then settling back to the $9+ range or $7+ range with a much higher level of institutional ownership. But likely with a higher level of institutional ownership we'll see a high short position again, maybe even higher if we get past the $12 PPS range. We'll see how all this goes but I say this fairly strongly.........
if the shorts want out...... it will take Volume and it seems that will require a $5 to $7 PPS range for retailers to sell in droves. All IMO!!