Congrats to those who bought in and also are on this board.
Lets see where it goes. This should have positive impact on biotechs like cougar sale did. I think that many will take their gains and look for the next dndn. like ogxi. 130 ml market cap with two phase III compounds fully funded and if approved will sell in 3 billion global market.
Unless we come up with an estimated cost of ogx-011 and generic taxotere and cost of AE treatment due to chemo, this discussion of expensive vs cheap is futile.
My point is that chemo is not as cheap as most people think. Furthermore, the treatment of AE can be more expensive than the cost of taxotere. Then you also want to charge a good premium for ogx-011.
To see how expensive AE treatment for taxotere can be (not prostate but should give you an idea). http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2407-10-26.pdf
Also, before becoming the standard treatment people claimed taxotere is too expensive for just few additional months. Dont forget that there will be progress (e.g., ogx-011 for taxotere). Same will happen for provenge.
Agree with all 3 points.
I own DNDN, so I know Provenge very well. However, I think the expectations are too high there. Provenge can only be used in large hospital centers, will not be used in community hospital setting in US. Even if every advanced prostate cancer patient gets Provenge, worst case for 011, it will not affect use of chemo.
I don't think 011 will be priced too cheaply either. At the time of approval, chemo will be generic, so it has less pressure on 011 pricing. 011 will probably be priced close to JNJ and MDVN's drugs assuming all of them get approved.
It's pointless to compare Provenge safety profile with chemo. Chemo should be compared to JNJ and MDVN's safety profile. They are not that much better.
This is similar to forever argument between monoclonal antibody vs chemo for cancer treatment. Even though monoclonal antibody sales in cancer skyrocketed, it has not affected use of chemo because they are either used concurrently or sequentially. On the other hand, small molecule kinase inhibitors have more impact on chemo use than antibodis have on chemo, because kinase inhibitors can replace chemo in many cases. Kinase inhibitors are playing the role of JNJ and MDVN's drugs. Based on known data, the chance of success in phase III are in the following order in my opinion, 011, JNJ, MDVN. That's where the focus should be.
I started this mess with my comparing 130ml market cap of OGXI to now 7 bl cap for DNDN.
So I will not use that context again, since I agree with you that approval of 011 is still a contingency and there are too many unknowns to determine profit of 011.
Having said that, I want to make sure I have correct assumptions:
1. DNDN is not a competitor in the sense it will not affect use of chemo and 011 in the USA. I know it won't affect sales outside USA, see the good article on BBC news today where it is stated no labs in Europe can handle provenge and it will be many years before UK even considers the treatment.
2. TEVA's agreement with OGXI determines profit rate for 011 based on tiers of sales. If I recall, it is 30% if sales over a billion. obviously lower profit rate at lower end of sales.
3. we do know global sales for prostate and lung (3 bl) but It is impossible now to predict 011 sales for a number of obvious reasons (since it is not approved, we don't know costs of 10 cycle treatment, we don't know competitors status in prostate, MDVN, Cougar, and their ability to capture sales from 011).
good article on provenge on bloomberg today. 93k per 3 cycle treatment, medicare will cover it (level of reimbursement an open question), some insurers saying no (Wellpoint). at that price, all DNDN needs is 20,000 patients a year=2 bl revenue in US.
This news is good for patients and biospace. I now officially promise to stop talking about provenge and wait for OGXI to announce first patient on.
Jet: I am involved in litigation in northern Canada where Union believes miners have a "God-given" right to earn $110,000 a year. Entitlement theory runs deep, even in miners.
Fly fishermen expect nothing but a bit of rain and a cheap smoke...
Dr. K they don't get it, you'll never be able to put aside that expensive/cheap argument. I wish the government would give us all Abel fly fishing reels. I think if I had one of them and lost less fish my blood pressure would go down, my cortisol levels and ACTH levels would go down, my immune system would be better and it would lessen my chances of ever getting any CA, not just prostate CA. Could you as an independent person put that across to the US government and ask them if I could be test subject? Price of Provenge $93,000, cost of an Abel reel $750, less fish lost in battle priceless. t
In this these times when our whole country came on the verge of fiscal insolvency I just don't see how this drug is going to be approved by insurances. Break it down, the HMO Medicaids don't cover almost anything now. Medicare recipients are scared to death because their benefits are going down. A family of four who has Blue Cross insurance that covers meds are paying about $1500 per month. Bernie Madoff and Michael Millikan used to be able to afford a Provenge type drug.
My challenge is someone show me the model of how this med will get covered. I guess the government can implement a plan where all males have money drawn from their parents at birth and they later have it drawn from their checking accounts as adults and when you get older if you don't get prostate CA you have a better retirement(after you've some government tax of course), if do get it you're funded for about three months worth of coverage with Provenge the wonder drug.