The CC has major discussion why bone metastasis is one cause why PSA responses & PFS may not correlate with OS (a major discussion issue for provenge & ogx-011).
I dont know when we will learn if and how much xl-184 will correlate with an OS advantage.
Just to compare this to the first line OGX-011 study:
The OGX-011 PR / SD rates were numerically better. However, 50% of the patients in xl-184 study were second-line even though the ECOG scores and hemoglobin of the patients are about the same (ECOG & hemoglin has HR=0.27 & 0.52 in OGXI study). I dont how to compare bone/lymph node metastases numbers across these two studies.
Pain palliation were mentioned a lot but not quantified.
I think alot like you Dr. K. I have three horses running all with large positions, I need just one to hit and I'm being so-called greedy because my targets are higher than a simple double. If they don't hit you'll see me on one of these boards in the year 2025 still trying. t
Just a correction. The pain palliation of xl184 was somewhat quantified. The xl184 poster states that the pain relief occurred in 16 (out of 52) patients. The P2 of OGX-011 had 61% of patients with (durable) pain palliation.
Thus, I dont yet see XL184 having an effect on OGX-011 trials. Furthermore, the grade 3 or higher SAEs reported for xl184 may require its OS advantage to be proven for it to be approved for anything else.
However, I'm curious to see whether EXEL will be reckless/greedy enough to go for a mCRPC P3 trial where the end-point is OS without a similar P2 trial. XL184 seems a very interesting drug. I would hate to see it wasted while being rushed to the market.
Summer, have you decided on your investment strategy for OGXI? You've hinted that you don't plan to hold all your shares until the results of the P3 trials are announced. Do you plan to sell some, sell all, hedge some or all, or do something else? And would you sell before the results of the initial trial are disclosed or hold until a later trial announcement approaches?
I realize there are a lot of unknowns regarding which trial will end first, whether there will be an interim analysis for the P3 survival trial, when the randomized P2 trials for 427 will end, etc., so I wouldn't be surprised if you plan to play it by ear for now. But I'm curious so I thought I'd ask.