Mr. Ssssamsa, sorry to confuse. the $17 pps remains unchanged. the report discounts for risk of failure or delay of 011 in prostate and lung. The report states that "investors with a long term outlook could benefit from additional upside if OGX-011 proves effective in other indicators". THere are other discounts applied for similar risks in lung and 427.
From watching DNDN and MDVN, I don't believe anyone has idea of where pps will go in ramp up to release of data on 011 in prostate.
$17 target seems absurd unless the probability of success is assumed to be very low. Just NPV of 427 should justify $17.
I listened to the CC and Lazard presentation. No word about the SYNERGY's interim analysis. It seems like everybody took a vow of silence about it. I am not sure I understand why OGXI or TEVA wants to keep the interim a secret. All other companies talk about it. It's not like this is out of the ordinary.
Usually the interim is at 50% # of events. The timing of the interim analysis is also usually tied to the condition that the enrollment is complete. When that happens, the sites are informed and data gets collected.
I also dont understand how the co can keep this a secret. At least one site out of 140 study locations will leak this.
So I think, maybe, the interim got triggered . And I think at least one of the sites leaked that it got triggered.
Is that the reason of the sell off? What are the chances that everyone involved in I dont know how many countries will keep this info secret?
Good to hear from you again, Summer. It's been awhile.
Not so good to hear your analysis this time though. OGXI has always downplayed the importance of the interim in SYNERGY. As I recall, Scott Cormack has said that at the time it's done there won't be as many events as in the abi or MDV-3100 trials so it's unlikely the trial would be halted. He said that before they expanded the trial from 800 to 1,000 patients and as I vaguely recall he reiterated it after. Of course, they may have just been trying to manage expectations. As I also vaguely recall, you tried to get information from IR as to the revised # of events at interim after the expansion and got nowhere.
You say that the interim is usually done at 50% # of events but usually only after enrollment is complete, so is it possible they haven't reached the 50% # of events yet and have nothing to relate, especially since they're trying to minimize the importance? If they have reached it then does the fact that the trial wasn't halted mean that 011 probably hasn't shown aa big an advantage to date as it did in the P2 trial, i.e., 6.9 months (which was probably too much to expect anyway)? If so, does it also mean it's unlikely to show the 4 month or so advantage abi and MDV showed? If OGXI was being honest in saying they'll have fewer events at interim than abi or MDV I would think it's still possible they could match abi and MDV.
I gather the people at the study locations will know that the interim has been triggered since they'll be asked to provide the data but they won't have access to the aggregate statistics? (Though obviously they'll know they weren't good enough to halt the trial.)
As for the stock drop, it could be due to rumblings about the interim but it could also just be due to the fiscal cliff. OGXI's decline from the mid-14s to 12 or so is more or less in line with what other biotechs have experienced recently.
Hopefully someone will ask Cormack about the interim at the next CC but that may not be until February or March.