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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • dr.kuvasz dr.kuvasz Nov 15, 2012 7:32 PM Flag

    RBC report - Major Catalyst in Sight

    RBC issued report on OGXI. Major Catalyst in Sight. Synergy results year end 2013. 17 pps. I guess we all know this; matter of waiting and hoping world survives in the meantime.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I agree about the doubtfulness of the world surviving -- global slowdown, extreme weather, another Middle East war, etc. -- I wouldn't buy a call option on that. But is RBC saying that if the world does survive and SYNERGY succeeds their price target is only $17? Even if you downplay the market for the indication that would be approved (and $17 strikes me as pretty heavy downplaying), I would think that a success in SYNERGY would create expectations for success in the trial with Jevtana and the lung trial, as well as in other potential trials for 011 Teva might then initiate. It would even make the success of 427, which is another potential multiple-indication drug, more likely. I see a positive SYNERGY outcome as justifying $35+. But obviously the market either doesn't see it that way or has little faith the trial will succeed; otherwise, the pps would be higher than $12 now.

      • 2 Replies to mr_ssssamsa
      • IMO, this analyst doesn't understand the stock at all. We are going to get 427 (Heat Shock Protein Based) results early next year .... like in February for Postate cancer than mid year or so on Bladder cancer. This drug is unpartnered and has significantly more potential than -011 as it can be targetted towards several forms (ovarian, breast, lung) of solid tumor type cancers. 427 can be a pipeline within a pipeline type of product..

        If -011 Synergy trial is positive $35 PT is in the ballpark with positive P2 427 results.


      • Mr. Ssssamsa, sorry to confuse. the $17 pps remains unchanged. the report discounts for risk of failure or delay of 011 in prostate and lung. The report states that "investors with a long term outlook could benefit from additional upside if OGX-011 proves effective in other indicators". THere are other discounts applied for similar risks in lung and 427.

        From watching DNDN and MDVN, I don't believe anyone has idea of where pps will go in ramp up to release of data on 011 in prostate.

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