Well, we gambled and it did not work. I hope everybody is doing OK and no one invested more than he/she can afford to lose.
I did not expect OGXI to drop this much. I assumed since everybody (except few of us) was so sure that SYNERGY would fail, the pps would drop ~20%.
I now expect TEVA to drop OGX-011 in the next few months by compensating OGXI somehow ($20-30M?)
I now expect OGXI to partner OGX-427 asap.
I nearly doubled my position at OGXI today (I was not clever enough to wait until the close, so my cost average of the latest buys are ~$4.30). I will continue to buy if it continues to go down or stays at these levels.
I probably will sell before the OGX-427 results. OGX-427 alone is worth more than $60M.
Summer, the drug did not work but this message board always functioned at a high level and was one of the most illuminating and well-mannered of all Yahoo boards, and you were probably the biggest reason for that, so I'm sure I speak for most of us in thanking you.
I was pretty sure based on the stock's behavior that SYNERGY would fail but thought it would come closer to succeeding than it did and think the absence of a strong trend towards efficacy may have contributed to the sharp drop today. It makes success in AFFINITY and ENSPIRIT less likely. I don't know if TEVA will abort those trials since AFFINITY has nearly completed enrollment and Scott Cormack today said ENSPIRIT will reach its first futility analysis later this year. He also talked at length about how the fact that there would be fewer post-treatment therapies to confound matters in those trials may produce a different result., though he may have just been putting up a brave front on that.
I'm also not sure if OGXI will partner 427 before the results of Borealis-1 are known. If that trial fails there will be no P3 in that indication. All the remaining P2 trials are investigator-sponsored and unless and until at least one of them reports a positive result leading to a P3 I don't see the point of partnering.
I pared my holdings enough after the interim last year to come through this in decent shape. I extend my sympathies to anyone who didn't. The SNUS nightmare is forever etched in my psyche so I know how awful it can be.
I agree that TEVA would first analyze the results. As you said, the only reason I can see they may go on with other trials is if there was any major confounding (e.g, if a large number patients were withdrawing early from this trial to switch to the never drugs).
OGXI can do what THLD did. They can do an option to full partnership now. An upfront payment (say $30M) and then if Borealis-1 is successful, another payment (say another $30M).
Here is what THLD did before the Phase 2 results instead of raising money.
Under the terms of the agreement, [,,,], Threshold will receive an upfront payment of $25 million and could receive up to $35 million in additional development milestones during 2012. Threshold is also eligible to receive a $20 million milestone payment based on positive results from its randomized Phase 2 trial in pancreatic cancer. Total potential milestone payments are $525 million, comprised of $280 million in regulatory and development milestones and $245 million in sales-based milestones.