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NanoLogix, Inc. Message Board

  • regularguy330 regularguy330 Jan 3, 2013 7:53 AM Flag

    Q4 Sales Guesses, average from 1st 8 = $75k

    OK,
    - noting leawood's poetic figure, but kept it since it's not wildly above the range
    - putting a number on Jim Ed's post, because it matches badbilly's logic

    Currently we have a mode and median at $90k and a mean at $74k
    Let's see how it shapes up with more players....

    leawood 169,500
    WTR 124,000
    RG 101,000
    abig 90,000
    shabby 90,000
    eric 15,000
    bad 5,000
    jim 5,000

    AVERAGE 74,938

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    • BTW - last time, the modal guess was $60k and actual was $63k.
      Average with PDE's low-ball was around $58k, without it was around 62k

      nmber1 complained about the low n, but if you take an econ class, you know that you can model simple markets with small number of players. NNLX sales estimate is a simple exercise. The figures we have are very reasonable. Additional guesses in good faith won't move the average dramatically.

      Actual was in the range of the average, analogous to "met analysts expectations" and pps did not move significantly upon release

      Since we have less information this time, we have more chance of "surprise"

      My prediction is that if actual reported sales exceed the average prediction by 1 standard deviation or more, we see pps go up.

      If actual is short of the average prediction by one standard deviation, we will see pps drop, then stabilize lower, so if eric means 15 cents is "in the toilet" I agree.

      and if billy is right on actual sales, WTR I agree with WTR, we're down the drain - die-hards hang on around a dime, hoping for a turn-around.

 
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