This is a possibility the longer Japan drags it's feet about restarts. All producers are still producing high volume because of restart anticipation and dumping just too much into the market. Banks are exiting all their holdings as well. More pain ahead for Cameco if things don't change soon.
No, the sentiment is so negative now and it hasn't up until now, however the poorest performing season for miners is upon us, the problem is that there isn't anything on the horizon that will improve things any time soon, and i think that's called dead money, but since they are a dividend paying stock and the leader in U stock biz i would take a chance
Whether we like it or not, a combination of ,Japanese restarts, mine shutdowns, bankruptcies, M & A's etc are needed to work down U supplies worldwide and that may take a few years, but if i wanted to put money anywhere in this sector it would be with CCJ, and if u r lucky enough to catch a UEC rally, i will tell u the same as i was told by a nice "pit boss" years ago in Las Vegas, after I had a decent win, when she paid me my $$$ she told me to "GO HOME NOW"
Most producers including Kazakhstan have gotten the message and are reducing production. Deutch bank to my knowledge exited in December so I assume any selling there is over with. I do expect spot to spike significantly soon
The longer Japan drags its feet, the better. The pain will cause some other producers with higher costs and weaker balance sheets to go under, and less competition is always good in the long run. Go Japan!
What are your thoughts long term. It appears prices are too low right now, which would seem to impact supply longer term. More importantly though, Japan hasboth a fiscal account deficit and a capital account deficit. They are in really bad shape, so will have to start some/many/most of their nuclear plants. Also, China and many other countries are building more nuclear plants as well. All of these plants need a secure long term supply. This it would seem has the potential to push prices really high if one looks out say 3 years or more. Al that point, what would CCJ be worth. Finally, are there any other good plays in this area? Thank you.
The main supply concern is that Kazakhstan has completely overwhelmed the market is the past several years. From a demand perspective Japan has been so slow to recovery that the excess supply will take years to run off. Combine that with global banks liquidating their uranium holdings (unknown how much they were stockpiling). Cameco is probably the only long term play as they can withstand a long downturn. The other public suppliers will all go bankrupt or go through rounds of capital raising via share sales.
To buy or sell Cameco really depends on your timeline.