I am in the industry and all I hear is EPIC. ATHN is peaking. If you read the transcript w/ analysts, mgmt admits hospital/large deals are slowing. Also, the sales dept for practice accounts is entirely new and in need to developing a schedule pipeline. next quarter will be a disappointment. buy puts
also look at insider ownership. they own less than 2% of the company. funds own almost all of it. it is very thinly traded and heavily shorted which is why a little move up gets going so fast. the weak shorts have to get out. but October is coming and that is the month in which the funds do their tax selling. they will sell their losers and their winners to offset their losers and the funds are net winners here.and will sell this thing. look at their margins. they are not Internet fairy dust numbers. proven out by their revenue per employee. it is an FTE intensive business, not a microsoft. it has not and will not scale and it is in a market that is in very big trouble now, with a push me pull you product that offers less than it promises.
they have an interesting model. the clients who sign up think they are getting a billing service. but they are not. they are getting a cloud hosted billing system that has some bells and whistles but the fact is that the practices are still responsible for doing their own billing. the fee the clients pay is half that of a billing service but the services are less than half and the clients never reduce their back end staff. thus, the ssmarter clients finally figure out all they are getting for their money is a more expensive billing system that they have to manage. as with all systems of this sort there is a considerable barrier to leaving. the clients have to reactivate their old systems. luckily they still have their old people. still, they lose quite a lot of business. they are a passing fad in my opinion. there is much less than meets the eye and if george w bush's cousin were not a partner you would not even know about it.
there is very little chance they will make major inroads into large groups. further, the market is now in deep weeds. both because of the political situation and also because the low hanging fruit has been plucked. the spurt of business of the last few years has been caused by the government threatening doctors who do not get EHR systems with penalties and offrering subsidies to the doctors who do. the subsidies occur over three years and the first year is the largest and it expires on October 1 next month. You have to be up and running on an EHR by October 1 to get the money and it is now impossible to do that because it takes months to get up and running. the remaining two years offer less money and those deadlines are also in October but of next year and the year after. so if business does improve it is six months away. But every competitor is out there slugging away. and as I said, Athena does not provide what their new clients t hink they provide.
I am too. They are giving away services. If you look at their numbers their revenues go up significantly but their EPS stays the same. I know of one deal they just got, a renewal, where they had the client for a rate of X and to get a few more doctors on board they reduced their fees by one third and agreed to give away their EHR. The PE ratio is nearly 200. It is INSANE INSANE INSANE.
I shorted. I dont disagree with puts but I just do not know when the idiots will catch on. It is thinly traded by young kids who are into Internet fairy dust and believe for some reason that this is an Internet play, I guess. Who knows. I believe a fair price for this is $10. If you discount that to give it some Internet Fairy Dust cachet, it is is worth $20.